***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.9 8.3 -0.7 41.5 43.2 6.2 8.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.6 7.5 8.6 -0.3 42.3 45.9 6.5 8.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.5 9.1 8.6 -0.7 40.5 43.5 7.1 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.7 4.9 -1.4 37.2 38.9 1.2 4.2 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.4 7.6 6.5 -1.2 36.1 40.5 6.5 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.3 6.7 5.6 -1.3 35.1 40.2 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.9 8.6 -0.2 43.6 46.7 6.3 8.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -0.5 1.2 6.0 -0.9 37.1 44.0 1.0 2.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.8 9.3 7.5 -1.0 37.8 41.9 8.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.3 8.1 6.6 -1.0 37.0 42.9 7.3 9.6 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.4 9.0 6.9 -1.2 36.6 41.1 7.9 9.9 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.6 8.6 6.5 -0.9 37.2 43.3 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.8 8.6 7.0 -0.9 38.0 43.1 7.4 10.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.1 9.6 7.8 -1.0 38.4 42.5 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.3 5.4 6.5 -1.0 36.0 41.3 4.6 7.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.4 6.5 -1.2 36.2 40.8 7.9 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.0 8.2 -0.4 41.6 45.0 6.1 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 6.3 6.5 -1.0 37.7 43.9 5.6 8.1 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.3 8.7 -0.4 41.8 45.6 7.0 8.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.1 5.2 5.4 -0.5 40.3 48.1 3.8 6.7 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.7 9.2 8.0 -1.1 37.4 40.9 6.9 10.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.8 7.7 8.2 -0.5 41.7 44.6 6.8 9.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.5 8.3 8.8 -0.5 42.3 45.5 6.9 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.0 9.1 7.8 -1.0 37.7 42.6 7.6 10.7 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.3 7.8 6.8 -1.1 39.1 40.7 5.7 8.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.1 8.3 6.3 -0.6 39.9 45.6 6.9 9.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.7 8.9 7.8 -0.7 40.9 43.0 7.1 9.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.3 5.8 5.6 -1.3 36.2 39.5 5.4 8.8 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.8 6.2 -0.8 38.1 45.9 3.7 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.9 8.6 -0.3 42.8 46.1 6.5 8.6 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------