***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 14.3 14.0 12.9 2.6 74.3 73.9 9.0 11.0 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 13.4 13.8 13.6 3.3 78.4 78.6 6.7 9.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 13.7 13.6 13.5 2.8 74.0 74.3 7.8 11.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 8.4 9.3 9.4 2.3 77.1 73.5 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 13.8 12.9 11.2 2.2 72.1 70.5 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 11.6 12.3 9.1 1.3 63.5 62.3 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 13.4 13.2 13.4 3.2 77.0 77.9 6.8 10.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 5.1 5.4 10.3 2.2 68.6 68.8 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 14.3 14.2 12.2 2.4 72.5 71.0 9.8 11.4 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 12.9 12.6 11.1 2.2 68.5 68.1 9.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.5 11.6 2.1 69.4 68.5 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.4 14.2 10.8 2.3 70.6 70.4 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 13.3 12.9 11.3 1.8 67.0 65.7 10.5 12.0 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 14.5 14.9 13.1 2.9 72.3 72.1 7.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 10.7 11.5 11.7 2.8 83.7 80.3 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.5 10.9 2.0 70.0 67.5 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 13.2 13.3 13.1 3.2 77.8 78.4 6.6 9.5 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 11.8 11.7 10.9 2.4 68.9 69.1 8.6 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 13.7 14.3 13.8 3.3 79.0 78.7 6.7 10.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 10.7 9.9 9.3 2.1 68.2 66.9 6.8 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 13.7 13.2 12.8 2.3 70.9 70.1 9.6 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 13.2 12.7 13.2 3.0 76.6 77.2 6.7 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 13.7 14.6 14.0 3.4 79.3 79.0 7.0 10.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.4 13.7 12.8 2.7 70.2 71.2 8.3 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 11.9 11.8 11.5 2.1 70.3 69.9 8.8 10.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 12.2 12.5 10.0 2.0 68.3 67.2 9.8 11.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 13.4 12.5 12.3 2.4 71.8 71.7 8.9 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 10.5 10.9 10.3 2.2 77.1 73.9 8.7 9.3 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 9.7 9.9 10.5 2.4 68.8 68.5 6.5 7.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 13.3 13.6 13.5 3.1 77.5 77.6 6.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------