***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 2.3 1.8 2.0 -0.2 48.3 46.9 0.3 1.9 3.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.1 1.6 -0.2 47.0 46.6 0.0 1.2 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.1 2.1 0.0 49.3 48.6 1.7 3.1 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -3.7 -2.4 -0.8 -0.3 41.3 44.0 -2.9 -2.2 -1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 1.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 41.5 45.0 -0.4 0.8 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 -2.0 -0.2 43.4 45.7 -0.9 0.2 1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 1.5 1.2 1.8 -0.1 50.5 48.3 0.0 1.2 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -3.7 -4.7 -1.5 0.0 45.2 47.9 -5.0 -4.1 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 1.8 1.1 0.3 -0.2 43.1 46.6 0.2 1.5 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 1.1 0.1 -1.0 -0.1 44.8 47.6 -0.1 0.8 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 1.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 41.8 46.0 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 0.3 -0.6 -1.1 -0.1 42.6 46.1 -1.5 0.0 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 -0.2 40.7 44.9 -0.9 0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.1 48.5 50.1 1.0 1.7 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.4 40.1 42.7 0.0 0.5 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 1.9 0.5 -1.1 -0.3 39.5 44.2 0.5 1.6 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.8 1.6 -0.2 47.7 46.5 0.0 1.0 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 0.1 47.7 49.8 -1.3 -0.7 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 1.7 1.3 1.7 -0.1 47.7 47.8 0.2 1.4 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -3.1 -3.4 -2.3 0.2 50.3 51.4 -4.1 -3.4 -2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 1.5 0.4 1.3 -0.2 43.0 46.2 -0.1 1.1 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 1.0 0.7 1.7 0.0 49.9 48.4 0.0 0.7 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 1.3 0.9 1.8 0.1 50.3 50.7 0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 47.9 49.6 0.1 0.9 1.4 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.2 1.0 -0.2 45.5 46.0 0.0 1.4 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.4 -0.2 42.7 45.3 -0.7 0.5 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.4 1.5 -0.3 45.9 45.7 0.4 2.1 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 38.1 41.6 -1.3 -0.3 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.3 -1.7 0.2 50.0 51.5 -2.2 -1.3 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 2.0 1.6 1.8 -0.1 48.8 47.9 0.3 1.7 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------