***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 1.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 44.5 47.0 -1.8 1.0 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 0.2 -1.3 0.0 -0.2 42.0 46.4 -1.8 -0.3 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.8 0.1 -0.2 43.1 46.8 -0.4 1.0 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -4.2 -2.8 -0.2 40.6 46.1 -5.2 -2.7 -1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.5 -2.3 -0.3 41.4 46.5 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -1.6 -4.0 -0.1 42.2 48.9 -3.0 -1.2 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 0.0 -1.4 0.1 -0.2 43.0 46.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -6.6 -4.8 -3.9 -0.4 40.2 46.6 -5.9 -4.4 -3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 0.2 -0.9 -1.9 -0.3 41.9 46.3 -1.5 -0.3 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.9 -3.2 -0.4 40.8 46.5 -2.1 -1.3 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -1.7 -2.9 -0.2 41.4 46.7 -2.0 -0.9 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -3.2 -1.6 -3.4 -0.2 41.1 47.0 -2.8 -1.4 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -1.3 -3.5 -0.1 42.6 48.0 -2.5 -0.9 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.9 -0.4 41.4 46.0 -1.0 0.4 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -1.9 -1.8 -0.3 38.7 45.6 -2.3 -1.2 0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 0.4 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 42.1 47.2 -1.2 -0.1 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -1.0 0.1 -0.2 42.2 46.5 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -2.4 -3.9 -0.4 40.4 46.6 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 0.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.1 42.4 46.5 -1.2 -0.5 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -7.1 -6.9 -4.9 -0.4 44.3 47.5 -7.2 -5.8 -3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -1.7 -0.7 -0.3 42.4 46.6 -2.0 -1.0 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -2.0 -0.9 -0.1 -0.2 43.3 46.7 -1.8 -0.6 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 42.6 46.5 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.4 -2.3 -0.3 41.0 46.4 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 0.2 -0.7 -1.1 -0.2 43.3 47.1 -1.6 -0.2 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 0.1 -1.1 -3.6 -0.1 40.3 48.8 -2.1 -0.2 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 1.0 -1.0 -0.3 -0.3 44.1 46.9 -2.3 0.7 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -3.2 -2.3 -2.9 -0.4 39.3 45.3 -3.4 -2.0 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -3.3 -4.1 -0.4 42.4 47.0 -4.1 -2.8 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 0.4 -1.2 0.1 -0.1 42.7 46.5 -1.9 -0.2 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------