***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 -0.5 -0.1 1.9 -1.2 35.3 37.8 -0.4 1.0 3.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -1.0 -0.4 1.4 -1.2 32.5 37.5 -0.4 1.5 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 0.6 1.8 2.1 -0.9 37.6 39.3 1.0 2.6 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 -5.7 -5.5 -0.8 -1.3 31.2 35.4 -5.3 -2.3 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 -1.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.1 34.8 37.7 -0.8 0.1 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -2.2 -1.6 -1.6 -0.8 35.8 39.7 -1.9 -0.7 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 1.5 -1.2 32.9 37.9 -0.3 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -7.0 -4.5 -1.2 -0.6 40.4 42.7 -5.8 -3.8 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 -0.7 0.0 0.6 -0.8 38.4 40.4 -0.1 1.4 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -1.4 -1.4 -0.6 -0.7 40.0 42.0 -1.6 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 -1.6 -0.9 -0.1 -0.8 37.7 39.8 -1.4 0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 -2.2 -2.0 -0.7 -0.8 38.1 40.5 -2.0 -0.6 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 -1.7 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 38.1 40.9 -1.3 -0.3 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 -0.9 0.1 0.7 -0.4 41.5 43.8 -0.3 0.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 -0.9 -0.2 0.6 -1.1 31.7 36.7 -0.2 1.4 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 -0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 35.8 38.8 -0.7 0.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 -1.2 -0.4 1.2 -1.3 31.4 36.9 -0.1 1.6 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 -2.7 -2.1 -1.1 -0.6 41.3 43.1 -2.3 -0.7 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 -0.7 0.2 1.6 -1.0 35.4 38.9 -0.1 1.6 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -6.7 -4.6 -1.9 -0.5 41.3 45.0 -5.6 -3.5 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 -0.9 -0.6 1.5 -1.0 37.1 38.8 -0.8 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 1.5 -1.0 34.2 39.3 -0.4 1.0 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 -0.9 -0.2 1.8 -0.6 40.1 42.2 -0.8 0.5 2.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 -0.6 40.4 42.6 -1.3 -0.3 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 -0.6 -0.5 1.1 -1.2 34.6 37.4 -0.5 1.3 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 36.5 41.0 -1.5 0.6 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 -1.4 -0.7 1.5 -1.3 34.2 37.0 -0.7 0.5 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 -0.6 -1.3 30.4 35.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -4.1 -2.2 -1.4 -0.3 44.2 45.6 -4.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 -0.8 -0.1 1.7 -1.1 34.2 38.3 -0.2 2.0 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------