***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 2.9 4.4 5.1 1.4 64.9 64.8 1.3 2.6 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 63.0 64.1 0.5 1.8 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 4.3 5.4 5.3 1.5 66.9 66.2 2.4 4.1 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 -0.3 0.3 2.4 1.0 62.3 61.2 -1.9 -0.5 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 2.0 3.0 3.4 1.0 62.1 60.6 0.0 1.8 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.5 54.1 53.8 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 3.1 4.1 5.1 1.8 68.5 68.9 0.6 1.2 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 -2.2 -2.0 1.4 1.1 61.8 60.9 -3.6 -2.3 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 2.4 2.8 3.3 1.0 61.3 60.7 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 2.2 2.9 2.1 1.1 63.1 62.1 0.1 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 2.1 2.1 2.8 0.9 59.2 59.2 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 1.5 2.0 1.9 0.8 57.5 57.5 0.2 1.4 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.2 50.0 50.1 0.1 1.7 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 2.8 3.8 3.5 1.5 66.6 66.9 1.6 2.4 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 2.2 2.3 3.5 0.6 59.0 57.9 1.2 2.2 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 2.6 2.7 1.7 0.4 53.5 53.1 1.5 2.5 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 2.3 3.2 4.6 1.5 64.6 65.3 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 68.2 66.5 -0.6 0.9 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 1.9 3.5 4.8 1.4 64.9 65.4 0.7 1.6 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -1.6 -0.7 0.8 1.5 65.3 64.5 -2.5 -1.9 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 2.2 2.6 4.3 1.0 61.6 60.3 0.5 1.9 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 49 51 100 2.9 3.6 5.0 1.6 68.3 67.5 0.3 1.6 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 3.2 3.1 4.9 1.7 69.4 69.9 0.8 1.8 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 48 52 100 2.9 2.6 3.4 1.4 67.0 66.3 0.7 1.8 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 2.4 3.4 4.5 1.2 63.4 62.5 1.2 2.2 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.4 52.5 51.7 0.9 1.9 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 2.5 3.9 4.7 1.2 62.9 62.7 0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 1.2 1.4 2.3 0.5 56.1 55.3 -0.3 1.0 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 48 52 100 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 66.6 65.9 -0.9 -0.1 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 2.3 4.1 5.2 1.6 65.9 66.8 0.9 2.0 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------