***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 37.8 69.0 32.6 31.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 23.5 30.8 38.5 71.4 36.6 32.6 30.4 35.6 51.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 30.8 41.0 39.4 72.5 36.2 33.0 40.5 49.6 64.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 42.8 43.3 43.0 78.3 34.7 37.2 42.5 60.7 71.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 35.0 35.0 40.3 73.2 30.4 33.9 36.2 49.9 69.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 30.8 33.9 41.6 76.1 31.5 34.9 35.1 47.0 62.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 24.7 30.1 37.6 70.2 34.0 31.9 29.6 35.6 44.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 46.5 51.2 44.5 75.1 30.5 35.1 53.8 69.1 82.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 32.7 38.6 40.9 74.4 34.3 35.3 38.1 51.3 58.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 37.1 41.4 43.6 74.3 32.3 34.7 42.6 54.7 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 39.3 29.7 38.0 72.5 29.5 33.6 38.1 58.8 79.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 41.4 46.3 39.6 75.1 31.3 35.6 46.3 62.8 95.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 33.4 32.6 40.0 71.6 28.0 32.0 41.3 58.6 75.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 42.1 51.0 49.0 77.4 35.5 35.5 49.7 65.0 87.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 38.8 52.0 47.8 89.0 40.8 43.2 48.4 60.4 80.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 30.3 31.2 37.7 71.4 28.9 32.5 34.6 46.5 78.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 25.2 31.3 37.6 71.5 36.2 33.9 30.1 37.1 45.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 41.3 43.3 48.9 74.4 35.6 34.8 39.9 55.7 72.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 27.8 31.3 39.3 72.5 35.7 33.3 29.3 37.8 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 40.3 38.0 58.3 71.9 29.6 32.0 40.1 63.0 79.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 31.6 37.6 39.6 72.6 33.8 33.2 36.8 49.6 62.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 26.6 37.8 40.2 74.1 36.1 35.6 37.7 43.4 58.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 28.0 33.7 41.3 74.8 36.8 34.5 31.1 44.2 57.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 37.9 45.0 45.6 75.7 36.8 35.6 44.2 55.6 83.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 27.9 28.7 41.0 68.7 30.3 30.2 31.2 44.8 48.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 59.0 44.8 43.2 77.5 38.5 37.4 42.4 51.5 69.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 27.8 28.2 39.6 67.3 30.7 29.4 34.0 42.8 57.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 33.1 40.7 43.1 81.7 36.3 39.1 39.8 51.1 73.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 56.6 49.3 52.9 73.0 32.6 33.2 49.4 85.3 109.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 26.9 31.7 38.5 71.0 37.6 31.9 29.4 37.5 46.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------