***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 11.9 91.5 60.9 49.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.6 10.5 84.1 56.5 48.6 2.7 8.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 14.8 11.6 89.4 58.2 48.9 2.4 6.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.8 12.9 98.3 60.0 51.8 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.7 12.5 93.8 55.3 51.3 3.9 11.3 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.1 10.1 13.2 108.3 63.5 54.9 1.0 5.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.9 9.6 10.5 84.4 57.1 48.9 3.9 7.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.1 10.5 13.0 91.1 54.7 49.6 4.9 9.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.9 12.5 91.9 55.8 50.5 2.1 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.3 12.7 88.8 53.3 48.8 3.2 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.2 11.5 92.6 53.4 50.6 1.9 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.7 11.0 11.7 95.4 57.0 51.5 1.9 7.8 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.1 6.5 12.5 99.6 56.0 53.4 3.4 6.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.0 12.0 13.1 85.5 49.2 46.3 4.2 12.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.0 13.1 106.1 63.9 51.9 0.9 4.0 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.0 11.6 96.5 54.9 51.6 2.3 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.0 9.8 82.4 52.8 47.9 4.3 7.9 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.1 7.9 13.8 84.3 49.5 46.4 2.8 8.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.1 10.7 84.9 57.2 48.2 3.0 7.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 7.3 17.1 85.7 51.3 47.0 3.7 6.7 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.9 12.1 12.3 93.0 59.0 50.7 5.4 10.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.2 10.1 83.4 53.0 47.0 2.4 9.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.4 11.3 86.9 56.3 47.9 2.6 6.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.7 11.8 12.8 86.9 51.0 47.1 4.5 11.3 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.5 13.2 94.3 60.9 50.6 2.1 6.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.7 12.9 106.4 58.3 54.3 2.3 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.0 11.1 12.7 92.1 60.1 49.6 5.0 5.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.0 12.4 101.7 60.8 51.7 0.4 4.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 9.6 15.0 83.3 49.3 45.6 7.1 9.6 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.0 10.1 10.9 85.5 58.4 48.7 4.5 6.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------