***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.3 82.8 48.5 44.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.2 11.8 86.9 52.9 45.3 1.8 4.9 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.4 12.0 91.0 55.7 48.0 4.0 6.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.3 14.6 12.9 94.3 60.8 49.6 6.1 12.1 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.2 11.8 12.4 94.6 58.3 49.9 2.3 8.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.4 12.7 89.4 57.0 48.3 2.7 6.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.0 11.8 86.5 51.9 44.9 3.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.7 17.0 14.6 102.1 63.9 53.5 7.3 10.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.5 8.1 12.5 95.7 60.0 50.7 2.0 4.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.4 12.4 13.8 98.7 63.0 52.3 3.3 7.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.9 12.0 12.2 97.5 60.2 51.0 3.7 7.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.8 16.1 12.9 102.3 65.7 53.2 8.0 10.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.6 12.5 92.1 59.2 49.4 4.9 7.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.1 11.6 14.4 93.1 59.1 49.1 3.7 8.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.5 21.7 13.9 101.7 65.2 51.3 3.5 12.2 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.8 11.9 93.2 60.1 49.3 3.6 9.4 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.5 11.1 82.9 53.0 45.1 1.7 4.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.3 16.5 15.5 98.4 64.2 52.6 6.3 8.2 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.0 11.8 87.4 54.8 45.9 1.2 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 19.2 19.1 96.0 59.6 51.4 6.7 14.6 24.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.8 11.8 89.2 55.7 47.9 4.0 7.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.0 11.3 82.1 53.5 45.0 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.2 12.3 89.7 57.9 47.3 2.8 6.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.0 14.1 97.6 62.5 52.0 3.5 9.3 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.1 12.6 84.0 50.0 45.2 3.0 7.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.3 13.8 97.1 63.4 50.9 3.7 7.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.0 12.1 81.1 47.0 43.6 2.3 5.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.5 14.4 12.7 96.4 63.4 50.2 6.0 10.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.2 17.9 16.7 95.1 60.6 51.6 8.2 12.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.7 5.4 11.9 88.3 51.3 45.5 3.0 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------