***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.6 69.9 41.6 36.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.2 5.0 11.5 69.0 42.3 35.3 2.2 5.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.0 5.9 12.4 76.0 46.7 38.3 2.1 6.8 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.0 9.5 12.0 78.6 47.1 41.9 2.8 10.5 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.3 12.1 79.0 48.2 42.0 2.5 6.3 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.9 11.3 12.7 84.8 48.6 45.6 4.0 12.4 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.8 3.0 11.3 68.1 40.5 34.9 1.4 6.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.6 23.1 13.5 84.0 53.7 44.4 4.8 19.5 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.0 12.9 83.7 48.7 42.9 1.3 9.4 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.5 13.6 84.0 51.5 43.2 2.5 7.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.3 11.3 79.2 51.3 42.9 2.4 7.4 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.4 11.9 83.8 54.9 45.1 1.8 6.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.5 11.9 78.2 48.5 43.1 2.6 7.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.1 8.3 16.1 85.3 46.8 43.3 4.9 8.8 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.6 9.8 14.1 95.7 59.5 48.2 2.9 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.2 11.2 76.9 48.5 42.6 1.0 8.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.4 5.0 11.3 69.4 44.0 36.9 2.0 7.5 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.5 9.2 15.5 83.0 50.9 42.9 2.9 8.9 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.7 12.1 72.1 43.4 36.5 2.7 7.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.6 10.0 17.3 72.6 47.9 39.8 2.1 10.8 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.6 7.5 12.4 78.6 47.4 39.9 2.5 8.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.3 7.4 12.3 72.5 44.1 37.6 3.4 8.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.8 13.2 78.1 44.6 39.0 3.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.4 14.7 84.1 51.5 43.0 2.3 7.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.1 2.3 12.0 67.8 38.1 35.6 1.9 5.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.1 13.8 13.0 87.4 54.0 46.3 2.6 10.5 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 1.6 2.2 11.9 66.3 38.1 34.6 1.8 4.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.8 12.6 87.5 53.6 46.0 2.8 6.6 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 13.4 16.4 77.6 49.6 41.7 5.0 13.5 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.3 4.0 11.7 69.7 42.0 35.1 1.8 5.8 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------