***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.1 26.4 27.4 22.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.9 3.6 4.6 41.7 39.6 29.8 2.6 7.9 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 2.7 3.2 3.4 28.7 28.8 22.6 6.4 9.1 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.4 4.6 5.1 40.2 34.4 31.8 4.3 9.1 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 3.3 3.4 3.3 24.8 23.9 21.5 5.4 10.4 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 3.3 2.8 3.1 23.3 27.7 23.7 3.2 12.1 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.4 3.8 4.1 37.2 35.4 28.6 3.3 5.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 4.8 3.2 3.4 23.3 21.4 21.9 11.2 15.1 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 2.9 3.3 3.0 23.4 25.8 21.4 5.7 10.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 2.8 3.3 3.4 24.2 23.0 21.5 6.8 9.8 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 4.3 5.6 3.0 22.8 23.1 21.6 8.1 11.7 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 4.1 2.1 3.0 22.1 23.4 22.6 3.6 12.9 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 2.6 4.0 3.1 21.2 22.7 18.8 5.9 10.4 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 7.3 12.0 5.4 39.6 36.9 26.9 10.6 15.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 4.7 6.8 52.2 42.0 36.9 3.2 7.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 2.8 3.0 3.0 22.2 24.3 20.9 4.7 9.5 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.6 6.6 5.4 49.0 42.5 34.2 2.7 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 4.2 4.4 4.1 27.2 25.0 22.0 7.0 12.5 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.8 4.6 41.1 40.9 29.2 3.8 8.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 5.5 4.4 4.9 28.0 23.1 20.9 7.6 18.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 3.0 2.7 3.1 25.1 26.1 21.6 3.0 9.9 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.1 8.5 6.5 56.8 48.9 37.2 2.7 9.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.5 6.3 4.5 38.8 40.2 27.6 4.4 11.3 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 3.8 2.5 4.0 29.8 28.4 23.3 5.1 11.8 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 2.5 2.0 3.1 24.1 23.0 20.1 3.1 8.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 2.2 2.4 3.5 24.1 25.9 21.5 10.6 12.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 2.1 2.6 3.0 24.6 24.4 20.0 4.8 7.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.1 3.7 5.4 41.7 36.9 32.4 3.1 8.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 7.7 9.6 4.7 30.3 25.9 23.0 10.7 21.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 3.0 4.4 4.0 35.7 35.4 26.3 3.6 8.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------