***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 1.2 71.4 67.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 9.0 8.6 8.9 1.1 70.0 66.7 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.4 9.3 1.1 69.5 65.2 8.0 8.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.1 6.8 0.5 57.3 58.2 2.4 3.9 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.7 7.7 0.7 60.4 60.5 8.1 9.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 9.8 9.4 7.0 0.9 62.8 63.3 7.6 8.5 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.8 8.7 1.1 71.5 67.4 7.0 7.8 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 3.8 3.3 7.2 0.9 65.8 63.0 1.2 2.0 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.5 8.5 0.8 61.4 61.3 8.4 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 10.2 9.6 7.8 0.9 63.9 62.4 7.6 9.0 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.2 7.7 0.8 62.5 61.6 8.1 9.1 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 10.2 10.0 7.6 0.9 63.2 62.7 8.4 9.5 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 10.7 9.9 7.6 1.1 66.9 65.1 8.6 9.5 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 10.9 10.3 8.7 0.9 65.3 62.6 8.2 9.2 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.2 7.2 0.5 63.1 59.8 6.5 7.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.3 7.5 0.9 63.1 62.4 9.3 10.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.2 8.5 1.0 69.3 65.6 6.4 7.5 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 8.4 8.6 7.7 1.1 66.7 64.4 5.8 7.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.7 9.1 1.1 69.4 66.0 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 7.8 7.2 6.3 1.4 71.8 67.8 5.2 5.9 7.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.0 8.9 0.9 64.3 62.6 8.0 9.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 9.0 8.7 8.6 0.9 67.7 63.9 6.7 7.9 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 9.5 9.2 9.2 1.1 69.0 65.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 11.0 10.6 8.7 1.0 66.6 63.6 9.0 9.8 10.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 9.2 9.2 7.8 1.0 68.3 65.0 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 9.6 9.6 7.3 1.2 65.9 66.3 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 10.3 10.2 8.6 1.2 72.2 67.5 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.3 7.0 0.4 57.7 57.4 6.8 7.8 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 7.1 6.7 7.2 1.3 69.2 66.5 4.9 6.0 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 9.1 9.0 9.1 1.2 71.3 67.1 7.1 7.7 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------