***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.6 -0.1 46.9 48.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.5 5.2 -0.3 43.7 47.9 3.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.5 6.8 5.6 -0.3 45.6 47.2 4.4 7.0 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.6 2.9 3.8 -0.4 45.9 47.0 0.0 3.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.7 4.3 -0.4 44.9 46.7 5.1 7.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.7 3.8 -0.2 46.3 49.3 4.8 6.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.4 5.1 -0.2 46.1 48.3 3.5 4.9 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.2 0.7 3.8 -0.4 43.3 47.7 0.0 1.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.5 7.5 5.0 -0.4 45.4 46.7 5.3 7.9 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.3 4.3 -0.4 44.3 47.2 4.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.9 6.0 4.3 -0.4 43.4 47.5 4.8 7.3 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.8 4.3 -0.4 42.4 47.9 5.0 8.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.2 4.0 -0.3 42.4 48.7 4.9 7.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.0 7.2 4.9 -0.5 44.6 46.5 4.0 7.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.3 4.1 -0.3 45.9 47.6 4.5 5.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.6 4.1 -0.3 43.4 48.1 5.4 7.7 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.7 3.8 4.9 -0.3 42.5 47.0 2.8 4.9 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.3 4.0 -0.4 43.8 47.1 3.5 5.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.0 5.4 -0.3 42.6 47.5 3.8 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.0 4.6 2.5 -0.3 43.8 48.5 2.4 5.6 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.4 6.4 5.4 -0.4 46.4 46.8 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.4 5.0 -0.5 38.5 45.6 4.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.5 5.5 -0.4 43.0 47.1 3.9 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.4 5.0 -0.4 45.3 46.9 5.2 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.1 4.3 -0.2 45.8 48.1 4.7 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.1 5.9 3.9 -0.2 40.4 49.6 5.7 6.4 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.1 4.9 -0.1 47.0 48.7 4.8 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.2 4.1 -0.4 46.0 47.0 5.0 6.6 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.2 3.4 -0.4 44.4 47.7 2.0 5.0 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.8 5.4 -0.2 45.2 48.1 3.8 5.5 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------