***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 7.5 0.8 61.6 56.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.2 9.2 7.2 0.8 61.7 57.8 5.7 7.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.2 7.5 0.7 58.0 56.0 7.1 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 3.2 3.3 5.5 0.3 55.1 53.8 1.2 2.7 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.4 6.0 0.3 54.6 53.4 6.2 9.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.1 5.4 0.4 55.5 54.2 6.4 8.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.2 7.1 0.8 64.3 58.6 4.7 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.2 5.4 0.3 52.5 53.3 0.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.1 6.7 0.4 54.3 53.7 7.1 9.9 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.3 6.0 0.4 53.9 53.4 7.0 8.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.6 6.0 0.4 53.5 53.1 6.4 8.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.4 5.9 0.4 52.8 53.4 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.0 5.7 0.5 56.7 54.9 6.6 8.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.6 6.8 0.6 55.1 54.6 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.5 5.8 0.3 54.7 54.6 6.0 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.6 5.8 0.4 54.5 53.7 6.9 9.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.9 6.8 0.7 60.2 57.2 4.5 7.2 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.8 5.8 0.5 55.5 54.3 5.3 6.4 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.3 7.4 0.8 60.6 57.3 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.9 4.3 0.6 57.4 55.4 2.9 5.7 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.2 7.1 0.5 55.0 54.5 7.0 9.4 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.0 7.0 0.6 58.1 56.2 5.3 7.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.4 7.5 0.8 59.8 56.6 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.9 6.8 0.6 55.7 54.8 7.8 10.7 11.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.8 6.1 0.6 58.9 55.9 6.1 8.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.2 5.6 0.5 55.0 55.2 6.3 7.9 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.6 6.9 0.8 61.2 57.1 5.9 9.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.0 7.8 5.8 0.2 53.3 53.4 6.2 7.5 8.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.5 5.2 0.6 56.9 55.2 3.4 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.5 9.4 7.3 0.8 61.7 57.8 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------