***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 10.4 1.0 62.8 60.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 11.0 10.7 9.9 0.8 63.7 59.8 6.5 8.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.7 10.4 0.8 58.5 58.3 7.1 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.4 8.3 0.4 51.9 54.8 1.2 4.2 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.0 8.9 0.5 50.7 54.4 6.5 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.2 8.6 8.2 0.6 51.7 55.4 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 10.7 10.5 9.8 0.9 64.2 60.6 6.3 8.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 3.1 2.9 8.3 0.6 52.5 55.5 1.0 2.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.4 9.5 0.5 51.8 54.6 8.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.4 9.7 8.9 0.6 52.3 55.1 7.3 9.6 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.7 9.9 8.9 0.6 51.3 55.1 7.9 9.9 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.3 9.9 8.8 0.6 53.0 55.6 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.8 10.7 8.6 0.8 54.7 57.1 7.4 10.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.5 10.9 9.5 0.5 54.1 54.7 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.9 8.4 0.4 55.1 55.9 4.6 7.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 11.1 10.4 8.7 0.6 51.9 55.1 7.9 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.8 9.5 0.7 63.3 58.8 6.1 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.2 8.7 0.7 54.9 56.0 5.6 8.1 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 11.3 9.9 10.1 0.7 62.5 58.9 7.0 8.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.3 7.1 0.9 58.2 58.0 3.8 6.7 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.8 10.0 0.6 53.9 56.0 6.9 10.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.3 9.6 0.5 59.1 57.1 6.8 9.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.5 10.2 0.6 59.6 57.3 6.9 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.2 9.6 0.6 53.5 55.8 7.6 10.7 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.8 9.1 0.9 58.0 59.0 5.7 8.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 9.7 9.4 8.5 0.9 55.5 59.0 6.9 9.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 12.0 11.8 9.8 1.0 63.2 61.1 7.1 9.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.3 8.9 8.5 0.3 51.1 53.8 5.4 8.8 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.4 8.0 0.8 57.1 57.2 3.7 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.9 10.1 0.9 63.8 60.2 6.5 8.6 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------