***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 3.1 79.8 78.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 13.5 14.4 13.1 3.1 80.1 78.9 6.7 9.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 14.0 15.3 13.6 3.1 80.3 77.9 7.8 11.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 7.8 7.3 9.3 1.6 69.0 68.4 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 14.2 14.0 11.5 2.5 75.6 74.0 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 13.6 13.7 10.7 3.0 76.1 75.6 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 13.3 14.5 13.0 3.1 81.3 79.1 6.8 10.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 5.8 6.2 11.2 3.2 80.0 77.2 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 14.7 15.6 12.7 2.8 78.2 75.5 9.8 11.4 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 13.7 14.6 12.1 3.1 79.9 76.2 9.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 13.9 14.6 11.7 2.7 76.9 74.1 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 14.0 14.5 11.3 3.0 78.0 76.3 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 13.9 14.3 12.0 3.4 78.3 78.0 10.5 12.0 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 15.1 16.1 13.4 3.2 78.5 76.5 7.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 10.3 10.4 10.3 1.7 72.4 71.5 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 14.4 15.0 11.5 2.9 77.2 75.3 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 13.2 14.1 12.6 2.9 80.1 78.6 6.6 9.5 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 12.6 14.0 12.4 3.7 81.7 78.6 8.6 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 13.6 14.9 13.4 3.1 80.3 79.1 6.7 10.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 12.1 13.6 11.1 4.3 84.3 82.8 6.8 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 14.2 14.9 13.1 2.8 78.1 75.6 9.6 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 13.1 14.5 12.8 2.9 80.3 78.2 6.7 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 13.4 15.3 13.6 3.2 80.6 79.1 7.0 10.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 15.1 16.2 13.3 3.4 79.6 77.1 8.3 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 12.3 12.7 11.9 2.8 77.0 76.4 8.8 10.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 13.0 13.1 11.1 3.4 78.8 80.6 9.8 11.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 13.9 14.5 12.9 3.1 79.7 78.8 8.9 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 10.3 10.2 9.8 1.6 69.2 67.7 8.7 9.3 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 11.1 12.0 12.2 4.2 83.1 81.4 6.5 7.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 13.4 14.8 13.4 3.2 81.0 79.3 6.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------