***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 3.5 1.2 74.2 67.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 2.3 2.4 3.0 1.0 70.9 66.5 0.0 1.2 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 4.0 4.4 3.2 1.2 76.6 68.9 1.7 3.1 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 -1.0 -0.6 1.1 1.2 74.2 68.2 -2.9 -2.2 -1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.0 67.9 64.6 -0.4 0.8 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 0.9 0.9 -0.4 0.9 63.5 64.1 -0.9 0.2 1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 2.1 2.1 2.9 0.9 66.7 64.4 0.0 1.2 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -3.0 -2.8 0.4 1.0 65.9 64.8 -5.0 -4.1 -2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 2.3 2.6 2.0 0.9 67.1 63.5 0.2 1.5 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 1.6 1.8 0.9 0.9 66.7 63.7 -0.1 0.8 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.0 68.4 64.7 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 63.4 63.6 -1.5 0.0 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 56.0 60.6 -0.9 0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.0 69.2 66.0 1.0 1.7 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 2.0 2.8 1.8 1.4 80.6 71.8 0.0 0.5 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 1.8 2.1 0.5 0.8 62.6 63.3 0.5 1.6 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 1.2 2.1 2.7 0.9 65.8 63.8 0.0 1.0 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.9 66.0 62.6 -1.3 -0.7 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 2.4 2.5 3.1 1.2 73.7 68.4 0.2 1.4 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -3.1 -2.9 -0.8 1.0 64.5 64.0 -4.1 -3.4 -2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 2.1 2.6 2.9 1.1 72.0 65.9 -0.1 1.1 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 1.5 2.0 2.8 0.9 69.0 64.6 0.0 0.7 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 2.3 2.5 3.0 1.2 76.2 70.3 0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 9999.0 2.5 1.7 1.0 70.8 65.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 2.6 3.3 2.2 1.3 76.1 68.7 0.0 1.4 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.7 61.0 61.5 -0.7 0.5 1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 3.1 3.5 2.7 1.1 71.9 65.6 0.4 2.1 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 72.2 67.7 -1.3 -0.3 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -1.0 -0.9 -0.1 0.9 64.3 63.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 2.7 2.7 3.2 1.1 72.8 67.3 0.3 1.7 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------