***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 0.3 -0.2 47.2 47.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 0.2 -1.2 -0.3 -0.5 43.6 44.9 -1.8 -0.3 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 41.4 45.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -3.8 -1.9 -0.1 44.3 48.2 -5.2 -2.7 -1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 -0.6 -1.5 -1.7 -0.4 41.8 45.8 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 -3.4 -1.5 -2.9 -0.1 44.6 49.8 -3.0 -1.2 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 0.0 -1.3 -0.2 -0.4 43.9 45.8 -2.0 -0.6 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -4.0 -4.8 -2.7 -0.6 40.1 45.5 -5.9 -4.4 -3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -0.6 39.3 44.6 -1.5 -0.3 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -1.9 -2.3 -0.7 40.4 44.4 -2.1 -1.3 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -2.3 -1.5 -1.9 -0.4 43.0 46.3 -2.0 -0.9 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -1.6 -2.1 -0.4 41.0 46.9 -2.8 -1.4 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -1.3 -2.3 -0.3 43.3 48.2 -2.5 -0.9 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 0.7 -0.9 -1.6 -0.7 39.1 43.0 -1.0 0.4 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.4 -1.1 0.2 45.5 50.6 -2.3 -1.2 0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -1.8 -0.3 -2.1 -0.3 43.8 47.7 -1.2 -0.1 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -1.0 -0.4 -0.6 42.4 43.5 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -2.5 -2.9 -0.9 39.0 43.8 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 0.0 -0.9 -0.3 -0.5 42.4 44.5 -1.2 -0.5 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -4.8 -7.0 -4.0 -0.7 39.5 45.7 -7.2 -5.8 -3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -1.8 -0.3 -0.4 41.5 45.5 -2.0 -1.0 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 41.8 42.3 -1.8 -0.6 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 0.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.5 39.9 43.8 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.5 -1.6 -0.7 40.0 43.6 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 0.2 -0.4 -1.2 -0.2 46.7 47.8 -1.6 -0.2 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -2.1 -1.0 -2.1 -0.1 43.9 49.6 -2.1 -0.2 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 47.9 48.1 -2.3 0.7 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -0.1 44.1 48.8 -3.4 -2.0 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -3.8 -3.4 -0.9 38.5 43.9 -4.1 -2.8 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 0.3 -1.2 -0.1 -0.4 43.2 45.9 -1.9 -0.2 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------