***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 4.8 1.1 62.0 62.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 3.0 2.7 4.1 0.9 61.0 60.9 -0.4 1.5 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 4.9 5.1 4.5 1.2 65.9 63.9 1.0 2.6 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 0.1 0.8 2.7 1.6 72.0 68.5 -5.3 -2.3 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 2.7 1.7 2.8 1.2 65.1 63.5 -0.8 0.1 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 61.2 63.6 -1.9 -0.7 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 3.5 2.4 4.0 0.7 54.9 59.2 -0.3 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -3.2 -3.0 1.7 1.0 59.7 61.0 -5.8 -3.8 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.1 3.4 1.0 60.3 60.7 -0.1 1.4 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 1.2 1.5 2.3 1.0 60.1 60.3 -1.6 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 2.4 1.1 2.5 1.2 64.5 63.3 -1.4 0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 0.1 0.2 2.1 1.1 59.6 61.4 -2.0 -0.6 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 0.4 0.8 1.6 0.9 56.4 60.4 -1.3 -0.3 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 1.3 2.2 3.1 0.9 58.0 60.1 -0.3 0.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 3.1 4.1 3.2 1.9 79.6 71.7 -0.2 1.4 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.2 62.8 62.8 -0.7 0.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 2.1 2.1 3.8 0.6 55.2 58.8 -0.1 1.6 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -0.1 1.7 0.8 57.6 58.2 -2.3 -0.7 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 3.2 2.7 4.2 1.0 64.2 62.2 -0.1 1.6 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -2.9 0.6 0.8 56.1 58.1 -5.6 -3.5 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.9 4.2 1.1 63.1 62.4 -0.8 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 1.6 1.5 3.9 0.6 56.8 58.8 -0.4 1.0 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 2.4 2.8 4.1 1.1 65.0 63.2 -0.8 0.5 2.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 0.5 1.1 3.1 1.0 59.5 60.8 -1.3 -0.3 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 3.3 3.1 3.5 1.5 70.8 66.5 -0.5 1.3 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 1.3 1.4 1.7 0.9 58.8 60.8 -1.5 0.6 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 3.4 3.5 4.0 1.1 63.5 62.3 -0.7 0.5 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 1.4 1.7 2.8 1.6 73.5 68.9 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.5 1.2 0.8 56.8 57.8 -4.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 3.7 3.4 4.3 1.0 61.7 61.8 -0.2 2.0 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------