***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 9999.0 0.0 6.9 3.2 84.8 81.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 4.1 5.7 6.6 3.1 85.0 81.3 0.5 1.8 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 6.3 9.2 6.9 3.4 88.3 84.1 2.4 4.1 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 1.8 3.8 3.9 2.8 86.2 81.3 -1.9 -0.5 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 3.4 3.7 4.5 2.6 77.3 77.2 0.0 1.8 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 3.0 3.4 1.8 2.1 76.6 74.4 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 3.9 5.0 6.2 2.7 80.9 77.2 0.6 1.2 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 -1.0 -0.3 3.4 3.0 81.0 80.2 -3.6 -2.3 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 4.5 5.3 5.0 2.6 80.9 78.6 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 3.6 4.3 4.1 2.9 81.0 79.4 0.1 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 3.2 3.6 4.0 2.5 75.5 76.4 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 2.3 2.5 3.4 2.5 74.9 75.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 2.6 3.0 2.5 1.7 65.3 65.9 0.1 1.7 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 4.9 5.7 5.4 2.9 83.3 80.5 1.6 2.4 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 2.9 5.1 4.9 2.9 87.4 82.3 1.2 2.2 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.1 72.4 72.3 1.5 2.5 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 4.0 4.8 6.1 2.8 81.3 78.6 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 1.9 2.4 3.5 2.8 80.7 78.8 -0.6 0.9 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 4.3 6.3 6.8 3.3 88.6 84.2 0.7 1.6 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 -0.1 0.8 2.3 3.2 83.9 81.2 -2.5 -1.9 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 4.5 6.1 6.2 3.0 83.2 80.9 0.5 1.9 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 3.7 4.8 6.3 2.9 85.2 81.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 3.8 5.9 6.7 3.5 91.4 86.9 0.8 1.8 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 3.6 4.9 5.1 2.9 85.2 81.6 0.7 1.8 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 4.3 4.8 5.8 3.1 80.6 81.8 1.2 2.2 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 2.6 2.4 2.5 1.9 65.8 67.4 0.9 1.9 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 5.2 6.0 6.0 2.7 80.0 77.8 0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 2.5 3.5 4.0 2.5 84.2 78.9 -0.3 1.0 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 1.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 82.1 80.3 -0.9 -0.1 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 4.6 6.4 6.8 3.1 85.5 81.8 0.9 2.0 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------