***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 30.6 45.4 47.0 91.6 47.5 45.7 34.3 46.6 51.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 25.2 35.0 43.6 94.1 49.4 47.0 29.6 35.3 51.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 33.5 47.1 44.4 87.5 44.9 42.8 40.5 50.3 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 65.7 61.9 58.3 101.2 53.9 50.5 41.9 59.7 70.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 59.4 42.3 49.5 89.9 42.9 44.2 36.8 52.8 67.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 31.9 50.1 49.2 97.4 54.3 47.8 35.1 47.0 67.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 26.1 36.3 43.9 95.9 51.4 48.8 29.7 36.1 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 76.7 72.0 57.3 97.0 52.1 48.7 54.0 69.2 89.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 52.2 43.5 49.0 88.6 42.4 43.6 38.2 46.9 59.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 61.9 54.7 52.3 89.3 45.0 44.1 39.3 55.5 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 65.2 52.3 49.6 91.2 46.3 44.8 31.1 59.3 80.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 71.3 77.0 54.2 101.0 55.7 50.8 46.5 62.8 90.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 38.1 60.4 53.9 97.7 52.0 48.1 38.0 58.6 75.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 39.3 52.9 49.7 82.2 40.1 38.0 46.2 64.0 83.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 67.2 76.9 65.4 114.2 63.4 56.5 39.5 57.0 80.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 34.2 49.9 50.6 95.1 49.4 46.7 34.8 50.1 78.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 46.1 41.3 44.4 97.5 52.9 48.5 30.6 39.3 45.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 62.5 51.0 53.7 88.5 44.4 43.6 40.0 55.7 72.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 31.0 37.5 42.7 90.4 46.1 44.3 34.3 42.6 53.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 72.2 70.3 72.9 97.3 52.7 49.5 40.1 65.2 85.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 34.4 46.1 47.1 87.6 44.0 43.1 38.4 50.2 61.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 50.7 43.0 44.6 92.9 48.8 45.6 35.7 43.9 61.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 28.3 42.7 42.3 85.4 42.6 40.9 33.5 45.6 57.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 37.5 48.3 47.9 83.8 41.1 40.2 38.8 55.0 83.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 48.6 43.9 52.6 91.5 46.1 45.8 35.4 44.3 49.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 59.3 71.2 63.4 115.6 66.7 58.6 42.5 52.5 69.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 29.0 43.1 49.1 91.6 47.5 46.5 35.5 43.4 49.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 57.1 54.5 56.4 104.0 56.9 51.4 35.5 47.7 73.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 93.9 82.2 59.7 92.7 47.5 46.0 54.4 83.9 106.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 28.4 37.6 44.0 92.4 48.4 46.3 30.0 38.0 49.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------