***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.0 11.8 86.9 49.3 45.7 3.8 8.1 14.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 8.9 10.7 86.3 50.5 44.3 2.6 8.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.9 9.2 11.9 87.9 52.3 45.9 2.9 8.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.5 15.2 100.1 60.9 47.9 4.4 7.3 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.7 15.2 14.5 98.8 58.2 48.5 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.3 14.5 104.4 62.2 49.8 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.8 7.0 10.6 88.7 51.9 45.2 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 16.4 15.1 97.7 59.5 48.6 4.8 10.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.5 14.6 96.8 56.4 48.6 1.8 7.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.9 14.8 95.3 58.2 48.4 2.3 10.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.8 14.3 99.5 58.6 48.4 2.0 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.7 13.9 14.5 103.0 61.0 49.1 2.3 6.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.0 10.7 15.0 104.2 61.3 49.4 2.3 6.2 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.9 13.7 85.2 51.3 45.7 5.6 11.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.1 9.0 16.3 104.5 65.5 48.6 1.1 4.2 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.5 14.2 100.4 59.0 48.1 2.3 5.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.2 9.3 10.2 86.5 53.0 44.6 3.1 7.9 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.3 14.3 89.5 55.6 47.5 3.5 10.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.7 10.8 84.8 50.1 44.0 4.3 9.6 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.4 17.7 90.4 56.8 47.2 4.0 9.3 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.1 13.5 94.2 54.1 47.7 3.5 10.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.5 10.4 81.6 50.3 43.5 1.9 9.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.7 11.2 84.7 50.8 44.3 2.6 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.7 13.3 87.6 53.9 46.8 4.4 9.2 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.5 13.9 92.7 52.0 46.7 2.6 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.2 10.4 15.7 109.3 61.0 50.4 1.6 6.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.7 6.0 12.5 89.5 50.5 46.2 4.2 5.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.2 14.9 102.1 61.8 48.1 0.9 5.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.1 14.7 87.1 55.6 46.5 7.3 11.1 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.3 8.3 11.0 86.4 50.7 44.7 3.5 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------