***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.0 11.4 79.8 52.3 42.2 1.8 5.8 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.3 9.4 71.9 49.7 40.1 2.1 3.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.8 11.0 79.2 50.6 41.6 3.2 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.1 12.8 15.6 102.6 61.5 48.0 5.2 11.4 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.1 12.4 14.3 97.2 58.6 46.2 2.4 8.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.3 7.8 14.7 104.2 58.6 48.7 3.3 6.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.9 9.4 73.0 48.5 41.0 3.7 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.4 11.8 15.4 96.5 57.0 45.3 7.2 9.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.0 14.0 92.5 57.8 44.8 2.1 4.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.1 11.2 15.1 95.6 58.1 45.3 3.6 7.8 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.9 10.3 14.3 99.0 58.8 45.9 3.6 8.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 5.0 14.5 14.3 99.3 57.4 45.9 7.1 10.9 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.7 14.2 95.9 54.2 46.0 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.2 9.4 12.0 74.0 46.5 40.1 3.5 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.7 18.4 18.4 116.4 66.1 48.9 4.6 10.4 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.3 14.0 98.2 55.7 46.1 4.5 10.1 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.6 4.4 8.9 69.0 47.4 40.2 3.0 4.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.5 12.1 15.0 90.7 56.1 44.4 6.4 10.0 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.1 9.4 71.6 49.2 39.9 1.2 5.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.7 14.9 17.5 84.4 51.4 43.4 6.7 14.8 21.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.3 8.6 12.5 85.9 52.8 43.4 2.3 7.7 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.1 5.3 9.2 68.2 46.9 39.8 2.7 5.8 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.0 6.3 9.6 70.5 47.6 39.8 2.5 7.2 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.8 10.2 13.1 85.4 53.1 43.0 4.2 9.6 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.9 13.2 84.8 53.6 44.1 3.3 6.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.1 15.1 99.4 57.1 47.6 4.4 7.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.2 12.0 81.0 52.6 42.9 2.7 6.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.7 14.5 16.2 110.2 63.5 48.5 5.2 10.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 6.0 16.0 15.2 86.5 53.7 43.6 8.3 13.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.8 9.8 73.2 49.4 40.2 2.8 3.9 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------