***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 11.7 14.2 108.2 64.3 52.1 3.9 7.6 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.9 11.1 97.4 60.1 50.2 1.5 5.9 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.2 13.0 101.4 60.9 51.2 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.3 17.8 16.5 112.4 65.3 55.7 6.5 12.5 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.6 13.9 13.2 92.9 59.7 49.7 4.5 12.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 12.2 103.5 61.7 54.6 8.5 13.8 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.6 11.2 97.0 60.8 50.9 2.4 5.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.9 23.6 12.6 85.7 54.4 47.7 4.9 23.0 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.6 14.9 12.6 89.8 59.3 48.2 1.3 9.9 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.0 14.6 12.6 86.4 55.3 47.9 2.9 10.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.5 16.0 12.6 89.5 57.7 48.0 3.5 10.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.8 12.3 91.6 57.5 49.3 3.8 8.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 21.2 21.8 15.2 112.7 66.0 58.0 4.5 17.3 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.6 18.5 13.4 91.8 56.6 47.2 4.1 15.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.5 25.8 18.9 132.7 74.5 59.0 3.8 6.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.1 17.3 13.4 101.7 61.4 53.1 5.7 12.5 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.2 10.2 90.7 57.4 49.5 1.9 8.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.0 10.9 12.2 82.3 52.4 46.1 4.9 10.3 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.5 11.3 97.4 59.2 49.8 2.8 8.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.6 12.7 16.7 87.3 54.6 48.8 6.0 10.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.3 13.2 95.6 60.0 49.2 2.7 10.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.5 10.3 88.6 57.1 48.9 3.4 9.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.0 11.4 94.4 57.4 48.0 2.4 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.6 15.7 12.6 88.9 55.7 47.6 2.4 10.3 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.5 12.0 16.4 109.2 66.3 55.1 2.4 7.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.6 25.2 17.0 124.2 71.2 60.2 6.2 13.9 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 10.2 14.9 106.5 65.3 52.9 2.0 5.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.6 15.7 16.1 118.5 68.8 56.6 3.4 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.5 21.9 13.4 85.5 54.1 47.1 7.4 16.0 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.0 11.9 100.6 61.0 51.2 2.1 5.8 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------