***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 9.7 92.8 61.3 51.6 5.5 8.2 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.3 19.6 12.4 130.9 73.0 60.5 3.4 9.7 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 12.8 16.0 8.5 81.9 60.1 50.4 5.7 10.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.9 15.6 10.9 87.7 59.8 53.0 5.1 9.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.9 13.5 7.6 65.9 55.7 47.2 5.5 11.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.6 7.8 72.7 57.1 48.1 4.3 12.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.2 14.8 12.6 135.1 73.9 60.5 4.2 9.7 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 20.5 22.7 14.3 111.2 65.3 58.8 10.2 18.4 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 13.8 13.5 7.8 70.4 57.8 49.7 3.7 11.6 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 14.3 13.9 9.8 77.1 58.0 51.2 6.1 11.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.9 8.4 73.1 56.4 48.7 6.3 11.1 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 15.6 26.8 13.0 112.1 66.3 58.6 3.4 11.2 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.6 11.6 9.5 76.2 57.3 48.7 7.2 10.1 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.1 10.6 78.1 56.8 49.2 6.6 15.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 11.0 20.8 11.7 100.9 67.3 58.1 3.5 7.3 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.7 15.4 9.0 77.5 56.2 49.4 5.6 9.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 14.1 16.9 15.0 158.2 78.0 64.8 4.8 9.5 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.5 16.5 12.1 90.9 59.3 54.4 6.3 10.1 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.3 19.1 11.3 114.5 67.9 57.4 3.8 11.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 25.8 28.4 21.1 140.9 71.1 65.2 7.7 16.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.4 13.6 7.9 71.3 56.3 49.1 4.2 10.0 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.7 20.0 14.7 144.9 74.4 62.3 2.5 9.6 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 12.0 15.6 10.1 95.4 61.1 53.1 5.2 9.9 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.2 8.9 71.4 53.5 48.4 5.1 12.3 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 10.1 10.0 9.1 76.7 55.8 49.4 3.1 7.8 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 15.5 21.7 15.6 133.9 71.1 62.8 10.5 13.8 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.0 9.8 89.9 60.2 51.3 4.5 8.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.2 17.5 9.2 80.7 59.5 51.9 3.6 7.4 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.3 29.0 16.4 115.9 65.4 59.8 12.1 16.5 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.1 17.9 11.2 116.9 70.4 57.6 4.4 11.0 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------