***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-08.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 1 99 100 10.7 13.7 11.5 3.2 94.1 88.7 7.9 8.7 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 9.8 12.9 11.3 2.9 91.8 86.1 7.4 8.3 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 10.8 14.2 11.8 2.9 91.5 85.6 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 5.3 8.1 8.4 2.8 90.0 84.5 2.8 3.8 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 11.0 14.0 9.9 3.0 91.1 84.8 8.3 9.3 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 10.6 13.3 9.4 3.3 92.5 86.2 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 9.5 12.6 11.3 3.0 93.2 87.5 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 4.2 5.8 9.0 2.6 85.9 80.3 1.3 2.2 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 11.3 15.2 10.7 2.9 91.2 83.9 8.6 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 10.9 13.2 9.8 2.8 87.6 81.7 7.8 9.4 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 11.7 13.8 10.3 3.0 90.2 84.4 8.3 9.7 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 10.7 13.4 9.6 2.8 89.1 83.1 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 11.5 14.2 10.2 3.3 92.3 86.7 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 11.5 13.7 10.9 2.6 85.2 79.2 8.3 9.7 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 9.0 11.0 9.6 2.8 92.2 85.8 6.7 7.5 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 12.3 14.4 10.1 3.3 92.2 86.6 9.5 10.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 9.0 11.8 10.9 2.7 91.3 85.1 6.5 7.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 8.8 10.2 9.7 2.7 85.3 79.8 6.1 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 10.0 13.0 11.5 2.8 90.5 84.7 7.2 8.5 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 8.1 10.5 7.9 2.5 84.3 78.3 5.7 6.1 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 11.2 14.6 11.3 2.9 91.7 85.0 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 9.4 11.6 10.8 2.5 88.3 82.4 6.8 7.8 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 9.9 12.5 11.6 2.7 87.8 82.5 7.2 8.5 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 11.5 14.8 10.9 2.8 86.5 81.4 9.3 10.2 11.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 10.0 13.1 10.3 3.1 93.0 87.6 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 10.2 12.8 9.2 2.9 91.4 86.8 8.4 9.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 11.1 14.2 11.2 3.3 94.1 89.0 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 10.0 10.7 9.0 2.8 90.5 84.4 7.3 8.3 8.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 7.4 9.9 9.1 2.7 85.6 79.3 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 9.9 13.0 11.5 3.0 92.7 87.2 7.4 8.2 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------