***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 10.4 11.2 9.7 2.2 72.1 68.9 6.2 8.4 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.9 9.6 2.2 69.9 68.5 6.5 7.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 11.1 11.4 9.9 2.1 67.8 66.5 7.0 9.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 4.6 4.1 6.8 1.8 65.5 64.5 1.3 3.3 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 11.1 10.6 7.9 1.8 64.7 64.3 7.3 9.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.8 10.1 7.5 1.8 65.0 62.0 6.8 8.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 9.8 10.8 9.6 2.3 72.2 69.6 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 3.5 2.9 7.5 1.8 65.4 62.6 0.7 2.2 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 11.7 11.2 8.7 1.9 63.4 64.0 7.3 10.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.4 8.2 1.9 64.2 63.0 6.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 11.6 11.7 8.1 1.9 64.8 64.0 7.6 9.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 11.0 11.1 7.9 1.9 66.2 64.1 7.5 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 11.3 12.1 7.9 2.2 68.0 66.1 7.1 9.1 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 11.1 10.4 9.2 1.9 64.0 63.2 7.5 9.4 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 8.5 8.3 7.4 1.6 63.4 63.3 5.9 7.1 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 11.7 12.0 7.9 2.0 66.6 64.9 8.0 9.7 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 9.2 8.8 9.4 2.2 68.5 68.2 5.6 7.6 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.4 8.3 8.4 2.0 65.5 63.2 4.9 7.1 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.2 9.8 2.1 68.8 67.1 6.6 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.2 7.8 6.8 2.1 67.5 64.1 3.7 5.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.2 10.8 9.2 1.9 65.9 65.1 7.1 9.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 9.8 9.4 9.3 1.9 67.5 65.7 6.1 7.9 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 9.9 9.6 10.0 2.0 66.6 65.2 6.3 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.5 9.2 2.0 65.3 63.8 7.4 9.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 9.8 10.3 8.2 2.1 68.8 67.5 7.1 8.6 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 10.5 11.1 7.7 2.1 70.5 67.8 6.9 7.5 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 11.1 12.2 9.3 2.3 72.7 69.2 6.8 9.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 9.1 9.1 7.1 1.7 64.0 63.1 6.1 8.2 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.7 7.9 2.0 66.2 63.5 3.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 9.8 10.7 9.7 2.3 71.5 68.8 6.2 7.9 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------