***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 13.4 15.0 13.0 3.5 84.5 80.0 6.3 8.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 11.3 12.4 12.7 3.2 82.1 78.4 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 13.1 14.7 13.1 3.2 80.8 76.7 7.2 10.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 6.4 7.5 9.6 3.1 82.8 77.1 1.2 3.3 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 13.2 14.3 11.3 3.3 78.8 76.2 7.6 9.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 12.3 13.6 10.7 3.7 81.6 78.2 6.8 8.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 11.6 12.7 12.8 3.4 84.0 79.9 6.2 8.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 4.8 4.9 10.3 3.0 74.5 73.6 0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 13.9 14.6 12.1 3.2 77.3 75.7 7.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 13.2 14.0 11.2 3.1 75.0 73.9 7.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 14.0 15.2 11.8 3.4 78.2 76.3 8.4 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.3 14.5 11.0 3.2 77.7 76.1 7.8 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 14.1 15.5 11.9 3.7 81.1 78.7 7.4 9.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 13.3 13.5 12.2 2.8 72.3 71.4 7.1 11.1 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 11.1 13.1 11.0 3.2 87.7 81.5 5.5 7.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 14.5 16.1 11.6 3.7 81.2 78.4 8.5 10.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 10.6 11.4 12.2 3.0 82.2 77.8 6.4 8.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 11.2 10.7 10.9 3.0 71.4 71.8 5.1 7.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 11.7 12.4 12.8 3.1 80.3 77.1 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 9.2 9.6 9.1 2.8 70.8 71.3 3.1 6.1 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 13.1 14.5 12.7 3.2 79.2 76.1 7.7 9.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 11.3 11.8 12.1 2.7 79.1 75.5 6.3 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 11.6 12.4 12.9 2.9 78.4 75.2 6.3 8.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 13.2 12.9 12.3 3.0 73.6 72.9 7.6 10.7 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 12.1 13.7 11.7 3.4 82.5 79.0 6.8 8.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 12.9 14.1 10.6 3.5 82.0 80.6 6.7 8.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 13.4 14.8 12.7 3.7 84.3 80.6 7.7 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 10.7 13.9 10.4 3.2 84.0 78.3 5.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 9.0 9.5 10.3 3.0 71.2 71.6 3.6 5.8 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 11.5 12.5 12.9 3.3 83.0 79.1 6.7 8.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------