***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 14.5 20.6 16.0 5.1 95.9 93.7 9.2 10.9 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 13.6 17.7 15.6 4.5 91.1 89.1 6.5 10.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 14.7 19.6 16.2 4.9 93.4 90.2 7.8 11.6 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.2 12.3 12.2 4.5 91.4 90.8 4.1 6.0 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 14.8 17.9 14.5 5.0 93.2 91.3 10.4 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 14.1 17.6 13.6 5.3 93.6 91.9 10.2 11.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 13.1 18.4 15.7 4.8 94.2 90.8 6.9 9.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 6.3 6.7 12.3 3.7 82.2 81.2 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 15.3 19.1 15.3 4.8 92.3 90.6 9.6 12.0 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 14.3 15.1 13.8 4.4 86.9 85.6 9.7 11.4 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 14.7 18.3 15.1 4.9 91.7 89.8 10.9 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 15.0 15.6 13.3 4.2 86.9 85.4 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.2 17.1 15.2 5.1 93.3 90.7 10.8 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 15.7 16.7 14.9 4.0 82.8 81.7 8.5 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 10.8 14.0 14.4 4.7 94.1 94.0 7.6 8.9 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 15.1 18.9 14.9 5.3 94.5 92.2 11.7 12.0 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 12.6 15.8 14.9 4.3 89.4 87.3 6.7 9.7 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 13.7 14.1 13.1 4.1 83.3 82.3 8.2 10.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 14.4 18.8 15.7 4.4 90.1 87.9 6.8 10.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 11.4 11.7 10.8 3.2 76.4 76.1 7.4 9.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 15.0 18.8 16.0 4.9 93.8 91.1 8.8 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 13.6 15.7 14.8 3.9 86.8 84.3 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 14.2 16.9 15.7 4.3 87.7 85.9 7.0 10.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 16.1 18.5 15.2 4.5 88.0 85.4 9.1 12.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 13.3 17.6 15.1 5.1 95.0 93.5 8.5 10.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 13.4 13.6 12.6 4.0 86.2 86.4 9.3 11.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 14.3 19.7 15.8 5.3 96.1 94.1 8.4 11.2 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 12.4 14.1 13.3 4.6 91.7 91.3 8.7 9.5 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 10.6 11.5 12.4 3.9 81.0 80.3 6.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 13.7 17.7 15.9 4.8 93.5 90.8 7.1 10.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------