***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 3.7 4.4 4.5 2.6 75.5 73.5 0.2 1.0 2.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 3.2 3.7 3.8 2.2 72.3 70.1 -0.3 1.3 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 4.8 5.7 4.3 2.4 75.9 73.0 1.2 2.3 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 -0.6 0.1 1.9 2.6 78.3 73.8 -4.1 -2.2 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 2.5 3.2 2.3 2.6 77.4 73.5 -0.3 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 1.8 2.3 0.5 2.5 77.3 72.7 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 2.8 2.9 3.8 2.1 69.6 68.9 -0.2 0.9 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -2.3 -1.7 0.7 2.4 75.5 71.6 -5.7 -4.4 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 3.5 4.1 2.6 2.5 76.4 72.8 0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 2.5 2.9 1.3 2.5 75.7 72.0 -0.4 1.1 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 2.6 3.6 1.9 2.6 78.3 73.8 -0.4 0.3 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 1.9 2.8 1.3 2.5 77.3 72.6 -1.6 -0.9 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 2.1 2.6 1.0 2.6 78.0 73.0 -1.2 0.3 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 3.4 3.6 2.3 2.2 72.4 69.8 0.5 1.6 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 3.3 4.2 2.8 2.5 77.8 73.8 -0.6 1.1 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 3.8 4.7 1.4 2.7 78.3 73.9 -0.1 1.3 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 2.6 1.9 3.7 2.0 68.8 67.8 -0.3 0.3 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 0.5 0.7 0.6 2.4 74.9 70.8 -1.8 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 2.9 3.3 3.8 2.2 72.8 70.7 -0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -1.2 -0.4 -0.4 2.3 71.9 68.6 -4.9 -3.4 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 2.8 3.6 3.7 2.5 77.2 73.5 0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 2.4 1.8 3.5 1.9 69.0 67.7 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 2.8 3.5 3.7 2.1 73.0 70.6 0.1 0.8 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 2.5 2.7 2.0 2.3 74.6 71.1 -0.5 0.8 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 3.3 4.5 3.5 2.8 79.0 74.7 0.0 1.0 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 2.2 2.9 1.1 2.6 78.4 73.7 -0.7 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 3.9 5.4 4.1 2.6 75.4 72.7 -0.1 1.0 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 2.0 2.6 1.9 2.5 77.1 73.1 -1.6 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 0.5 1.0 0.4 2.4 73.5 69.7 -2.8 -1.4 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 3.4 4.3 4.0 2.3 73.3 71.2 0.1 1.2 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------