***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 4.4 6.8 7.6 4.0 91.3 85.0 -0.8 1.4 3.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 3.7 6.3 6.7 3.5 89.2 82.8 -0.7 0.8 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 5.3 8.1 7.1 3.6 89.3 83.5 0.9 2.1 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 0.6 4.6 4.9 4.0 92.5 87.9 -4.9 -2.0 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 4.1 5.3 5.7 4.0 90.7 85.7 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 3.0 4.9 3.3 3.9 95.2 88.4 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 3.9 5.8 6.8 3.6 88.6 82.7 -0.6 1.4 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 -1.1 -0.1 3.2 3.5 85.9 82.7 -6.1 -4.1 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 4.5 6.1 5.6 3.8 92.4 85.9 -0.4 0.8 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 3.4 5.2 3.9 3.6 88.6 83.6 -1.8 0.5 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 3.3 4.5 5.0 3.8 91.2 85.9 -1.6 -0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 1.9 2.9 4.0 3.6 87.0 83.4 -2.3 -0.9 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 2.8 3.6 3.7 3.5 88.3 83.7 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 3.7 5.2 4.7 3.0 85.7 80.6 -0.5 0.4 3.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 3.3 5.6 6.1 3.9 94.3 88.9 -0.5 1.5 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 3.3 5.7 4.4 3.8 91.9 86.3 -0.7 0.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 3.6 4.8 6.2 3.2 85.7 81.0 -0.6 1.2 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 0.5 1.3 3.1 3.2 85.2 80.4 -2.8 -1.1 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 3.4 5.4 6.6 3.4 88.8 82.8 -0.5 1.0 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 -1.1 -0.3 1.9 3.1 80.1 78.1 -5.6 -4.2 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 4.3 6.4 6.7 3.8 90.9 84.7 -1.0 0.6 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 3.0 4.1 6.1 2.9 84.8 80.3 -1.0 0.5 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 3.4 5.2 6.4 3.3 88.9 83.0 -0.8 0.1 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 2.9 4.0 4.7 3.2 88.5 81.7 -1.4 -0.4 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 3.9 6.1 7.0 4.2 92.0 86.7 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.4 87.1 82.9 -1.8 0.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 4.4 6.9 7.3 4.1 90.6 84.8 -1.3 1.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 1.8 4.1 4.9 3.8 92.0 87.3 -1.5 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 1.7 3.1 2.5 3.2 84.2 80.0 -4.2 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 4.2 6.6 7.1 3.7 90.5 83.7 -0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------