***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 5.6 8.5 10.4 6.2 98.5 97.6 1.8 3.1 4.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 4.6 8.2 9.3 5.4 97.7 95.8 0.8 2.4 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 6.2 10.3 10.0 5.6 98.9 96.8 2.8 4.8 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 2.3 4.7 6.5 4.7 95.1 94.1 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 3.7 7.1 8.5 5.7 99.2 97.2 0.8 2.5 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 3.0 6.3 5.0 4.7 97.7 95.6 0.1 1.9 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 4.7 7.9 9.6 5.8 98.3 96.2 0.9 1.8 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -0.8 2.6 5.4 4.7 97.0 95.3 -3.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 4.9 7.8 8.1 5.4 99.1 97.2 1.9 2.7 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 4.3 7.4 6.1 4.8 97.4 95.5 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 4.1 6.8 7.4 5.1 97.7 96.3 0.9 2.2 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 3.1 5.8 6.6 5.2 97.5 96.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 3.5 5.9 5.9 4.6 97.5 94.6 0.0 1.8 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 5.8 7.8 7.0 4.5 97.4 94.5 1.8 2.7 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 4.0 5.4 7.6 4.1 90.4 90.4 0.9 1.9 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 4.4 6.8 6.6 5.0 97.2 95.6 1.5 2.9 3.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 4.5 6.9 8.6 5.1 97.2 94.0 1.0 1.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 2.2 4.1 5.1 4.3 95.4 93.2 -0.2 1.3 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 4.9 7.9 9.2 5.3 97.6 95.9 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 0.5 3.1 4.2 4.5 94.7 93.1 -2.8 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 4.9 9.2 9.5 5.7 99.4 97.4 1.5 2.3 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 4.4 5.8 8.5 4.7 96.0 93.6 1.0 1.7 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 4.1 7.2 8.9 5.1 97.9 96.3 1.3 2.0 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 3.9 7.0 7.2 4.8 98.2 95.2 0.4 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 4.6 7.5 9.9 6.1 99.0 97.6 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 3.8 6.3 6.3 5.2 98.9 96.8 0.3 1.7 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 5.9 11.9 10.5 6.5 99.1 97.9 1.2 2.4 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 2.4 4.7 6.4 4.3 91.5 91.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 2.8 7.0 4.6 4.5 95.8 93.8 -0.6 0.0 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 5.1 9.0 9.8 5.7 98.1 96.5 1.3 2.1 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------