***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 53.5 115.3 65.8 57.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 41.8 44.5 51.1 110.5 59.5 54.2 29.6 35.3 51.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 55.0 60.9 57.0 118.9 66.4 59.2 40.5 50.3 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 64.9 70.2 61.5 119.4 64.8 59.8 41.9 59.7 70.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 58.0 67.1 61.6 121.1 64.6 60.7 36.8 52.8 67.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 53.3 65.0 59.6 113.2 63.9 58.2 35.1 47.0 67.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 42.2 42.1 50.6 112.8 61.4 55.3 29.7 36.1 43.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 88.4 89.5 67.2 122.3 67.4 62.7 54.0 69.2 89.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 50.8 59.3 62.4 123.0 67.3 61.3 38.2 46.9 59.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 60.8 73.9 67.2 124.1 68.5 63.0 39.3 55.5 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 64.2 81.4 60.3 123.8 67.7 62.1 31.1 59.3 80.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 69.9 90.0 59.5 120.0 65.6 61.1 46.5 62.8 90.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 65.9 71.3 60.1 114.5 62.4 59.0 38.0 58.6 75.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 69.8 86.8 68.5 116.3 68.4 59.4 46.2 64.0 83.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 68.2 81.2 63.6 121.0 66.2 59.3 39.5 57.0 80.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 57.4 74.6 58.7 118.2 63.9 60.0 34.8 50.1 78.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 45.0 43.1 49.7 108.6 56.9 53.1 30.6 39.3 45.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 60.2 71.5 72.7 121.1 64.3 61.9 40.0 55.7 72.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 49.4 48.7 53.1 111.4 61.3 54.9 34.3 42.6 53.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 70.2 81.2 84.9 117.1 62.4 61.1 40.1 65.2 85.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 54.8 61.5 58.9 121.7 66.1 60.5 38.4 50.2 61.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 49.6 46.8 52.4 107.3 55.4 52.8 35.7 43.9 61.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 50.8 58.2 57.7 114.4 66.6 57.1 33.5 45.6 57.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 60.5 81.9 66.6 119.6 65.2 60.6 38.8 55.0 83.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 47.9 47.5 58.9 114.6 61.8 56.5 35.4 44.3 49.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 58.4 68.3 61.3 114.4 64.8 58.3 42.5 52.5 69.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 47.7 48.8 56.1 113.1 63.1 55.9 35.5 43.4 49.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 55.9 72.1 61.5 119.8 65.0 59.8 35.5 47.7 73.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 91.0 104.4 77.6 119.3 64.2 61.7 54.4 83.9 106.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 42.8 44.6 52.3 112.9 63.4 55.9 30.0 38.0 49.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------