***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 11.8 107.8 62.0 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.1 11.7 114.7 66.3 56.1 2.6 8.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.7 12.0 104.8 62.7 53.1 2.9 8.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.3 10.0 11.2 89.5 56.3 49.4 4.4 7.3 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.5 13.7 11.1 89.5 55.7 49.0 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.3 6.7 11.6 89.7 55.1 47.4 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.9 11.8 119.8 67.7 57.5 3.4 6.6 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.6 16.5 12.6 97.4 60.1 50.2 4.8 10.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.6 11.5 90.8 57.2 48.9 1.8 7.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.3 13.8 12.1 93.0 58.0 49.4 2.3 10.4 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.1 10.6 91.3 57.6 49.6 2.0 6.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.3 13.3 11.2 96.5 59.5 49.9 2.3 6.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.0 6.9 11.8 95.9 57.3 49.2 2.3 6.2 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.3 13.4 99.2 65.0 52.6 5.6 11.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 7.0 6.4 11.1 88.1 57.4 49.8 1.1 4.2 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.1 10.8 92.1 57.2 49.1 2.3 5.2 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.8 11.3 113.5 68.6 56.1 3.1 7.9 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 13.3 13.9 97.4 57.9 50.8 3.5 10.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.3 13.0 11.8 110.4 64.9 54.8 4.3 9.6 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 14.1 17.8 106.7 62.8 52.0 4.0 9.3 14.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.5 11.5 95.9 58.3 50.0 3.5 10.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.6 17.0 11.7 109.9 67.8 55.0 1.9 9.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.2 12.1 104.6 63.3 53.1 2.6 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.4 12.9 98.0 59.8 51.8 4.4 9.2 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.3 12.5 103.2 56.7 52.4 2.6 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.8 11.8 94.2 57.7 49.0 1.6 6.7 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.9 12.5 109.6 61.5 54.2 4.2 5.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.5 5.6 10.7 85.3 55.9 48.4 0.9 5.1 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 16.1 15.5 103.0 61.0 51.9 7.3 11.1 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 11.1 11.8 113.9 65.5 55.7 3.5 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------