***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 14.7 109.7 62.6 55.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.0 5.0 14.7 103.4 56.9 52.9 2.1 3.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.4 15.2 109.5 61.6 55.2 3.2 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 14.3 17.1 16.1 115.9 67.1 59.8 5.2 11.4 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.5 18.0 16.2 119.6 65.7 60.2 2.4 8.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.7 13.6 17.6 131.2 69.8 62.5 3.3 6.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.5 14.7 107.6 59.4 54.8 3.7 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.5 16.7 114.7 61.7 58.4 7.2 9.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.0 14.1 16.4 119.6 64.7 59.2 2.1 4.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.5 11.7 17.0 117.0 62.1 59.0 3.6 7.8 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.1 12.3 15.5 118.7 64.0 60.3 3.6 8.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.6 15.0 15.2 116.2 64.2 59.2 7.1 10.9 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.8 13.1 16.7 123.2 66.5 61.4 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.1 18.1 104.3 58.7 53.4 3.5 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.0 17.9 15.7 111.2 65.7 58.4 4.6 10.4 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.8 14.2 16.1 123.9 67.3 62.2 4.5 10.1 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.1 8.0 14.8 102.7 59.3 53.7 3.0 4.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.5 14.1 19.0 115.5 61.5 57.9 6.4 10.0 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.1 5.5 15.0 102.2 56.2 52.3 1.2 5.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 16.9 16.8 22.6 117.0 61.7 58.0 6.7 14.8 21.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.7 15.7 117.2 64.0 57.4 2.3 7.7 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.2 10.1 15.4 99.4 58.4 52.6 2.7 5.8 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.4 7.8 15.8 103.3 57.4 53.0 2.5 7.2 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 13.5 11.6 17.4 110.1 60.6 55.8 4.2 9.6 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.8 13.1 16.1 113.2 66.7 57.7 3.3 6.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.6 10.7 16.5 118.8 67.0 60.0 4.4 7.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.0 15.8 111.9 65.0 56.3 2.7 6.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.2 16.4 16.1 117.9 67.1 60.2 5.2 10.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.9 22.2 20.5 115.1 61.2 57.4 8.3 13.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.5 4.7 14.7 105.2 58.7 53.5 2.8 3.9 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------