***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 14.4 118.3 65.8 54.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.0 9.9 13.7 113.2 61.6 54.0 1.5 5.9 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.6 14.1 111.9 65.6 52.4 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.8 19.3 15.7 121.7 67.6 57.1 6.5 12.5 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.2 17.8 14.8 113.2 66.7 54.9 4.5 12.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.8 17.4 14.1 101.3 62.8 52.7 8.5 13.8 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.9 9.3 14.0 117.8 63.6 56.1 2.4 5.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 26.7 24.0 15.1 100.8 59.0 52.1 4.9 23.0 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.6 19.3 14.9 112.1 68.6 55.0 1.3 9.9 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.5 15.6 15.0 103.5 61.0 52.6 2.9 10.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.0 18.5 13.6 107.8 63.5 53.4 3.5 10.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.9 13.4 102.3 61.4 52.4 3.8 8.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 21.6 21.1 13.4 98.3 61.2 50.5 4.5 17.3 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.9 14.2 91.7 57.3 46.5 4.1 15.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.0 23.7 18.1 132.8 71.2 58.6 3.8 6.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.9 18.1 13.5 105.0 62.6 53.0 5.7 12.5 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 10.2 9.8 13.4 115.8 61.3 55.6 1.9 8.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.1 14.8 16.1 97.2 57.1 50.1 4.9 10.3 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.2 13.4 109.4 61.9 52.7 2.8 8.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 14.4 13.3 20.0 93.3 55.9 51.5 6.0 10.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.3 16.1 14.6 116.2 68.7 54.7 2.7 10.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.8 10.7 13.4 110.8 57.9 54.7 3.4 9.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.3 13.4 103.1 61.8 51.2 2.4 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.9 14.7 98.7 58.9 48.9 2.4 10.3 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.5 15.7 118.6 64.4 55.0 2.4 7.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.8 21.8 14.8 104.6 63.9 53.2 6.2 13.9 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.2 15.2 117.3 65.1 54.7 2.0 5.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.4 15.7 15.7 118.5 67.5 56.6 3.4 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 20.0 22.1 17.7 94.3 54.3 49.8 7.4 16.0 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.2 11.7 14.0 114.4 65.6 54.1 2.1 5.8 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------