***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 12.7 127.6 70.3 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.3 17.0 11.0 113.2 66.8 53.6 3.4 9.7 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 17.3 23.9 15.7 156.9 79.8 65.0 5.7 10.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.5 27.0 18.4 152.2 78.7 64.3 5.1 9.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 21.3 30.5 19.5 164.8 81.2 68.9 5.5 11.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 14.8 20.3 16.3 131.2 70.5 61.1 4.3 12.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.1 12.9 10.1 106.7 63.6 53.0 4.2 9.7 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 26.7 31.8 22.8 182.3 82.2 72.7 10.2 18.4 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 21.5 32.1 19.7 176.9 82.6 71.6 3.7 11.6 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 24.1 38.0 23.0 191.1 84.1 75.3 6.1 11.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 19.6 39.7 20.6 180.6 84.3 71.1 6.3 11.1 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 25.2 37.5 19.7 167.5 80.7 68.8 3.4 11.2 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 12.7 23.0 18.2 140.1 73.1 62.5 7.2 10.1 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 24.4 36.5 22.8 182.7 83.4 73.0 6.6 15.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 11.0 26.8 18.7 154.0 78.0 63.5 3.5 7.3 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 11.8 24.7 18.2 152.0 78.2 64.7 5.6 9.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.3 13.9 10.2 104.3 63.9 51.5 4.8 9.5 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 25.6 39.7 23.7 186.0 84.6 76.1 6.3 10.1 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.6 20.1 12.9 128.5 71.4 57.1 3.8 11.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 27.2 33.1 24.5 162.9 78.1 70.9 7.7 16.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 15.3 19.6 17.1 163.8 79.5 68.3 4.2 10.0 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.7 15.0 11.9 112.4 66.8 54.0 2.5 9.6 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 17.6 23.6 16.5 155.1 79.2 64.0 5.2 9.9 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 21.4 30.2 21.6 183.1 84.7 74.2 5.1 12.3 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.3 16.2 14.7 123.4 69.8 58.7 3.1 7.8 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.0 22.5 18.1 140.0 74.1 60.1 10.5 13.8 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.0 12.6 113.6 64.0 55.5 4.5 8.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.9 22.8 19.0 159.8 80.3 65.6 3.6 7.4 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 36.5 46.9 23.9 177.8 83.6 75.1 12.1 16.5 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.0 16.9 11.8 121.3 69.8 55.4 4.4 11.0 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------