***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 8.8 0.8 55.9 57.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 8.6 8.5 8.4 0.7 59.4 57.8 7.4 8.3 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.8 8.8 0.7 56.3 56.4 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 4.0 4.2 6.9 0.8 58.2 58.8 2.8 3.8 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 9.6 9.7 7.5 0.7 54.2 56.3 8.3 9.3 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 9.1 9.1 6.7 0.8 58.0 58.5 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 8.3 8.5 8.4 0.8 59.0 58.6 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 2.6 2.2 6.5 0.4 53.5 53.1 1.3 2.2 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 10.2 10.1 8.1 0.6 54.7 55.0 8.6 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 9.7 9.6 7.2 0.3 52.8 52.9 7.8 9.4 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 10.0 9.8 7.4 0.6 54.4 55.7 8.3 9.7 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 9.9 9.9 7.1 0.6 53.9 55.4 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 10.0 9.9 7.1 0.7 56.6 57.4 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.1 9.9 8.0 0.3 54.3 53.1 8.3 9.7 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 7.8 8.3 7.5 1.0 62.4 62.1 6.7 7.5 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 10.6 10.3 7.2 0.8 55.3 57.5 9.5 10.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.3 8.1 0.7 59.6 57.8 6.5 7.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.7 6.7 0.2 49.5 50.8 6.1 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 8.8 8.8 8.6 0.7 59.3 57.3 7.2 8.5 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.2 5.0 0.1 51.1 50.4 5.7 6.1 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 9.6 9.7 8.6 0.7 54.8 56.1 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.2 8.9 8.2 0.6 58.8 56.3 6.8 7.8 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 8.8 9.2 8.7 0.6 58.2 56.6 7.2 8.5 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 10.4 10.3 8.0 0.3 52.9 52.9 9.3 10.2 11.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 8.6 8.5 7.6 0.8 54.2 58.1 7.3 8.4 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 9.4 9.3 6.8 0.8 56.5 59.3 8.4 9.2 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 9.4 9.4 8.2 0.8 55.5 58.1 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 8.6 8.6 7.3 0.9 59.1 59.5 7.3 8.3 8.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.1 6.0 0.1 50.1 50.4 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 8.5 8.5 8.6 0.7 58.4 57.8 7.4 8.2 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------