***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 6.6 1.3 62.7 59.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.1 6.3 1.3 61.1 59.6 3.0 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.4 6.8 1.4 63.2 59.8 4.7 6.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 3.4 3.8 4.8 1.1 59.1 59.4 -0.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.6 5.3 1.2 62.4 59.6 5.1 6.9 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.0 8.4 4.5 1.0 60.4 58.7 5.1 6.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.1 6.1 1.3 62.2 59.8 3.4 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.1 2.9 4.8 1.2 63.5 59.0 0.5 1.6 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.5 6.1 1.2 63.2 59.4 5.9 8.1 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.6 8.6 5.4 1.2 63.8 59.2 5.1 7.0 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 7.6 8.9 5.3 1.3 63.6 60.1 5.0 7.0 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 8.5 9.7 5.1 1.2 62.7 59.3 5.6 8.0 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.9 8.4 4.8 1.1 61.1 58.6 5.7 7.3 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.1 6.3 1.4 65.2 59.7 4.6 6.6 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 6.1 6.5 5.0 1.1 59.2 59.8 3.9 5.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.9 9.6 5.0 1.2 62.1 59.8 6.1 7.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.3 6.0 1.2 60.8 59.7 2.9 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.1 5.2 1.2 63.5 58.8 2.8 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.5 6.6 1.4 61.7 59.8 3.8 6.4 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.2 3.5 1.1 60.8 58.2 2.6 5.6 6.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.5 6.4 1.3 63.3 59.5 4.5 7.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.1 6.2 1.2 60.8 59.8 3.9 6.0 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.5 6.8 1.4 64.1 59.9 4.1 6.6 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.3 9.4 6.3 1.3 65.0 59.5 6.2 7.6 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.5 5.2 1.1 61.7 59.1 4.4 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.9 4.6 1.1 61.9 57.8 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.2 8.1 5.9 1.2 62.9 59.3 4.7 6.6 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.5 7.3 5.0 1.1 59.5 59.8 5.1 6.0 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.2 4.5 1.2 62.9 58.7 1.5 5.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.8 6.5 1.3 62.1 59.7 3.5 6.0 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------