***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 8.4 1.2 59.2 58.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.3 8.1 8.1 1.2 59.5 59.4 6.5 7.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.9 10.4 8.6 1.2 58.7 59.2 7.0 9.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 3.7 3.6 6.7 1.2 59.3 58.4 1.3 3.3 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.0 7.2 1.2 58.4 58.1 7.3 9.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.0 6.3 1.1 58.4 57.9 6.8 8.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.4 8.0 1.2 60.4 59.5 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.6 2.5 6.4 1.1 55.8 57.7 0.7 2.2 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.7 11.0 7.8 1.1 57.3 57.7 7.3 10.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.8 7.0 1.1 55.5 57.3 6.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.1 7.1 1.2 58.8 58.6 7.6 9.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.6 6.9 1.2 59.5 59.0 7.5 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.2 6.7 1.2 60.2 58.9 7.1 9.1 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 9.8 9.8 7.9 1.1 56.5 57.9 7.5 9.4 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.4 8.5 6.8 1.2 64.0 59.2 5.9 7.1 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.9 6.9 1.3 60.0 58.9 8.0 9.7 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 7.9 7.9 7.8 1.1 60.6 59.0 5.6 7.6 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.2 6.7 1.0 54.9 56.6 4.9 7.1 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 8.6 9.0 8.3 1.2 59.3 59.2 6.6 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.2 4.8 0.8 54.0 55.7 3.7 5.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.1 8.2 1.2 58.6 58.3 7.1 9.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 8.3 8.6 7.9 1.0 59.7 58.3 6.1 7.9 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 8.7 8.9 8.5 1.2 59.0 58.9 6.3 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.4 7.9 1.2 55.6 57.9 7.4 9.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.9 7.1 1.1 58.6 57.6 7.1 8.6 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.6 6.4 1.1 59.6 58.8 6.9 7.5 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.0 7.7 1.1 58.8 57.9 6.8 9.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 8.4 8.6 6.9 1.2 61.2 59.1 6.1 8.2 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.3 6.0 1.0 54.7 56.5 3.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.3 8.3 1.2 59.8 59.5 6.2 7.9 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------