***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 10.0 1.0 55.4 57.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.0 9.6 0.9 55.1 57.4 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.4 10.1 0.9 55.9 56.5 7.2 10.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.9 8.2 0.9 54.5 56.5 1.2 3.3 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.4 8.8 0.9 51.9 56.4 7.6 9.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.5 8.2 1.1 52.8 56.1 6.8 8.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.9 9.6 1.0 57.3 58.0 6.2 8.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.7 2.9 8.0 0.7 49.6 54.5 0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.5 9.4 0.9 51.8 56.0 7.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.4 8.6 0.8 50.5 54.8 7.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.8 8.8 1.0 52.2 56.3 8.4 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.8 9.6 8.6 0.9 51.9 55.7 7.8 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.5 8.5 1.0 52.4 56.3 7.4 9.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.3 9.5 0.9 53.4 55.7 7.1 11.1 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.8 8.3 1.0 57.8 57.1 5.5 7.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.4 8.6 1.0 53.2 56.6 8.5 10.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.7 9.3 0.9 56.5 57.1 6.4 8.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.7 8.3 0.7 50.3 53.9 5.1 7.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.4 9.9 0.9 55.0 56.9 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.9 6.4 0.5 45.2 52.3 3.1 6.1 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.5 9.9 9.8 0.9 54.2 56.2 7.7 9.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.6 9.4 0.8 55.9 56.5 6.3 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.3 10.1 0.9 55.3 56.5 6.3 8.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.5 9.5 0.9 53.9 55.3 7.6 10.7 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.9 8.8 0.9 55.0 56.9 6.8 8.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.1 9.0 8.2 1.0 52.7 56.1 6.7 8.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.5 9.4 1.0 55.3 57.3 7.7 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.5 8.5 1.0 55.8 56.6 5.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.4 7.6 0.6 48.7 53.7 3.6 5.8 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.1 9.8 0.9 55.7 57.2 6.7 8.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------