***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 9999.0 0.0 10.3 -0.2 52.8 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 10.3 10.0 9.7 -0.6 49.2 46.9 6.5 10.0 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 11.9 11.4 9.9 -0.9 48.0 45.8 7.8 11.6 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 94 6 100 6.2 6.2 8.0 0.2 54.5 53.8 4.1 6.0 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 12.0 11.3 8.6 -0.6 47.0 46.7 10.4 11.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 11.6 11.4 7.7 -0.1 50.8 50.7 10.2 11.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 95 5 100 10.0 9.8 9.8 -0.4 51.4 49.3 6.9 9.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.8 3.3 6.7 -1.6 38.3 37.8 3.1 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 12.5 11.5 9.2 -1.0 45.8 43.4 9.6 12.0 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.0 10.2 7.5 -1.7 39.5 37.4 9.7 11.4 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 12.1 11.3 8.2 -1.0 44.0 43.2 10.9 11.7 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 12.3 11.1 7.6 -1.0 42.8 42.1 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 12.2 11.8 8.3 -0.5 48.7 47.4 10.8 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.0 8.6 8.4 -2.2 34.7 34.6 8.5 11.9 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 9.1 9.6 9.7 0.9 61.6 61.5 7.6 8.9 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 12.3 12.0 8.4 -0.5 48.5 47.6 11.7 12.0 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 94 6 100 9.9 9.7 9.4 -0.6 49.4 46.7 6.7 9.7 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.3 8.0 6.7 -2.3 32.0 32.9 8.2 10.9 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 11.3 10.4 9.7 -0.9 48.0 45.1 6.8 10.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 7.6 5.1 -2.0 34.2 33.9 7.4 9.0 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 12.0 11.7 9.8 -0.7 47.9 46.1 8.8 11.7 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 10.8 10.1 9.4 -0.9 46.2 43.4 6.8 10.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 11.2 10.3 9.6 -1.2 45.3 42.5 7.0 10.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.5 9.5 8.2 -2.0 37.5 35.7 9.1 12.6 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 10.4 10.3 9.3 0.1 54.5 53.6 8.5 10.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.6 8.1 0.1 52.1 52.4 9.3 11.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 96 4 100 11.4 11.4 9.9 0.0 54.2 53.0 8.4 11.2 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 9.7 9.8 8.7 0.2 53.9 53.7 8.7 9.5 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 6.5 6.0 -2.3 31.2 31.8 6.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 10.3 10.1 10.0 -0.6 50.0 47.9 7.1 10.1 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------