***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 3.8 1.5 72.5 69.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 2.4 2.7 3.2 1.3 70.9 67.6 0.0 1.2 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 4.2 4.2 3.4 1.4 71.7 68.5 1.9 3.4 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -0.5 1.5 1.6 74.8 72.2 -2.9 -1.9 -1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.5 69.1 68.9 -0.1 0.9 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 1.1 1.3 0.3 1.7 76.0 74.5 -1.0 0.2 1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 2.2 2.6 3.2 1.3 72.0 68.4 0.1 1.3 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 -3.6 -2.7 0.6 1.4 62.5 65.8 -4.9 -3.9 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 2.5 2.6 2.5 1.5 68.6 68.7 0.4 1.6 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.4 63.6 66.1 0.1 0.9 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 68.8 68.9 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 47 53 100 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.5 65.9 67.8 -1.5 0.0 1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 1.5 1.7 0.9 1.5 67.7 69.6 -0.9 0.4 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.1 62.0 63.5 1.1 1.8 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 2.1 2.9 2.3 1.8 80.0 75.7 0.0 0.6 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 2.6 2.6 1.1 1.6 71.7 71.1 0.4 1.6 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 1.9 2.2 3.0 1.2 68.8 66.1 0.1 1.1 2.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 1.3 59.4 63.3 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 2.4 2.7 3.2 1.3 71.1 67.5 0.2 1.5 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 -3.0 -2.7 -0.7 1.1 58.5 61.3 -3.7 -3.1 -2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 2.3 2.6 3.3 1.5 69.5 68.8 0.1 1.3 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 1.0 1.8 2.9 1.0 66.8 64.1 0.0 0.7 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 2.2 2.3 2.9 1.2 70.1 67.3 0.3 1.0 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 9999.0 2.3 1.9 1.3 63.6 65.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.5 73.3 69.7 0.0 1.5 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 0.7 1.3 0.9 1.4 67.7 68.8 -0.5 0.5 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 3.1 3.5 3.2 1.5 72.6 69.3 0.2 2.3 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 76.4 73.7 -1.3 -0.3 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 -0.9 -0.8 0.0 1.2 58.7 62.0 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 2.7 2.9 3.4 1.4 71.9 68.4 0.4 1.7 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------