***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.12.2013.-08.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 1.4 1.2 62.1 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.2 57.4 58.8 -2.3 0.0 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 1.6 2.3 0.9 1.1 60.9 58.4 0.0 1.1 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -3.0 -2.4 -1.3 0.8 60.2 57.3 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -0.4 0.0 -1.0 0.9 59.6 57.5 -1.8 -0.7 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -0.7 -0.5 -2.3 1.0 59.3 57.0 -2.6 -1.3 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 0.4 0.3 1.1 1.3 59.3 59.6 -2.1 0.0 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -4.0 -3.9 -1.8 1.1 57.8 58.0 -5.1 -4.4 -2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 0.6 1.3 -0.2 1.0 60.9 57.8 -1.6 0.2 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -0.5 0.1 -1.2 1.2 59.2 58.3 -2.0 -1.0 0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -0.5 0.1 -1.2 0.9 60.4 57.8 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.2 -1.4 1.0 59.4 57.6 -2.6 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 0.1 0.0 -1.7 1.0 60.9 57.2 -2.3 -0.6 0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 0.9 1.3 -0.6 1.1 59.1 57.6 -1.2 0.6 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 -0.1 0.5 -0.8 0.8 59.2 57.9 -1.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.9 -1.7 0.9 59.7 57.5 -1.4 0.0 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 58.3 58.9 -2.0 -0.5 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -1.1 -1.7 1.3 57.8 58.3 -3.1 -1.5 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 58.0 58.3 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -4.9 -4.8 -2.7 1.3 56.5 58.6 -7.0 -5.8 -2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 -0.1 1.0 0.6 1.1 62.5 58.3 -2.0 -0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 58.2 58.3 -1.8 -0.5 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 59.5 57.8 -1.2 0.0 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 1.1 58.6 58.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 0.4 0.5 -0.3 1.0 60.7 57.8 -1.2 0.0 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -0.3 -0.4 -1.5 1.1 59.2 57.2 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 1.0 1.5 0.6 1.2 61.5 59.0 -1.9 0.6 1.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.2 0.8 58.9 57.4 -2.8 -1.3 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -1.7 -2.2 1.3 58.1 58.2 -4.1 -2.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 58.9 58.9 -1.9 0.2 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------