***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 4.5 1.2 60.9 59.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 1.5 2.3 3.8 1.0 57.5 58.8 -0.7 0.8 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.5 4.0 1.0 57.9 58.4 0.9 2.1 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -1.5 -1.6 2.0 1.1 59.1 58.2 -4.9 -2.0 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 0.9 0.9 2.2 1.0 56.8 56.6 -0.8 0.1 1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 53.0 54.9 -2.3 -0.1 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 2.0 2.3 3.9 1.0 58.4 58.9 -0.6 1.4 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -3.4 -4.1 0.8 0.6 50.3 52.8 -6.1 -4.1 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 1.7 1.5 2.9 0.9 56.0 56.6 -0.4 0.8 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 1.1 0.8 1.6 0.7 52.6 54.4 -1.8 0.5 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 0.4 0.9 1.8 0.8 55.3 55.0 -1.6 -0.4 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -0.3 -0.2 1.3 0.6 52.2 53.3 -2.3 -0.9 1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.7 52.3 53.5 -1.5 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 1.1 0.6 2.4 0.6 53.6 54.9 -0.5 0.4 3.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 1.9 1.9 2.5 1.3 59.6 59.6 -0.5 1.5 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.8 54.8 54.7 -0.7 0.8 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 1.8 2.0 3.6 0.9 58.6 58.1 -0.6 1.2 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -0.7 -1.1 1.0 0.6 50.5 52.8 -2.8 -1.1 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 1.6 1.4 3.7 0.9 56.1 57.9 -0.5 1.0 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -3.4 -4.4 -0.4 0.4 46.6 50.6 -5.6 -4.2 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.0 3.8 1.0 57.8 58.2 -1.0 0.6 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 1.1 0.7 3.4 0.7 53.9 56.4 -1.0 0.5 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.7 3.4 0.8 55.4 56.5 -0.8 0.1 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 0.4 0.2 2.3 0.7 54.1 55.0 -1.4 -0.4 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 1.9 2.0 3.0 1.2 59.4 58.9 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.6 50.6 52.9 -1.8 0.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.9 3.8 1.2 59.0 59.2 -1.3 1.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 0.4 1.1 2.1 1.1 58.5 58.0 -1.5 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -0.8 -1.9 0.5 0.5 48.7 52.0 -4.2 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.6 4.0 1.1 57.9 59.0 -0.3 1.7 2.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------