***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.11.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 0.0 5.9 1.8 66.3 67.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 2.6 3.6 4.9 1.2 63.6 62.5 0.8 2.4 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 5.0 5.4 5.6 1.7 68.0 67.9 2.8 4.8 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 1.9 2.6 4.2 2.9 80.8 78.8 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 3.4 3.3 4.6 2.4 71.8 73.7 0.8 2.5 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 2.8 3.5 3.2 3.3 86.7 84.5 0.1 1.9 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 2.1 4.0 5.0 1.3 64.4 63.4 0.9 1.8 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -1.5 -0.9 2.8 1.9 70.8 70.8 -3.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 4.3 4.6 5.1 2.4 72.9 74.3 1.9 2.7 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.9 69.8 70.3 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 3.5 4.0 4.2 2.4 74.2 74.3 0.9 2.2 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 2.6 2.6 3.5 2.2 73.0 73.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.5 75.3 75.5 0.0 1.8 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 3.0 3.9 3.9 0.9 64.1 63.3 1.8 2.7 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 3.8 4.3 5.7 3.4 86.4 83.7 0.9 1.9 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 4.1 4.4 4.1 2.8 78.6 77.7 1.5 2.9 3.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 1.9 3.4 4.4 0.9 58.9 59.3 1.0 1.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 1.4 2.0 2.5 1.3 66.1 65.9 -0.2 1.3 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 2.6 3.8 5.0 1.3 65.5 64.0 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -1.2 -0.4 0.9 1.2 64.8 63.4 -2.8 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 3.7 4.2 5.7 2.1 70.0 70.8 1.5 2.3 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 2.0 3.1 4.3 0.7 59.8 57.9 1.0 1.7 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 48 52 100 3.1 3.8 5.0 1.4 68.8 67.3 1.3 2.0 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 2.3 3.3 4.0 1.4 67.5 67.7 0.4 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 4.0 3.7 5.2 2.3 68.9 71.2 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 3.3 3.7 3.3 2.3 74.3 74.4 0.3 1.7 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 4.3 4.5 5.5 2.0 67.1 68.3 1.2 2.4 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 2.2 2.8 4.8 3.1 83.6 81.2 0.0 0.8 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 0.3 1.3 1.7 1.1 66.1 64.6 -0.6 0.0 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 2.4 4.1 5.3 1.4 66.0 64.6 1.3 2.1 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------