***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 27.2 35.5 34.9 73.3 31.5 33.3 36.5 47.6 51.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 20.5 32.4 33.1 73.3 30.5 34.5 33.8 36.4 52.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 34.0 39.1 35.4 73.0 33.3 33.7 38.6 53.8 60.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 46.9 57.2 45.7 83.8 44.4 42.0 43.4 59.8 70.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 34.5 38.0 40.0 74.8 34.5 35.7 37.8 52.8 67.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 28.6 37.4 42.0 83.3 39.7 40.3 35.0 47.0 67.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 23.7 28.0 32.7 73.2 29.4 33.7 33.0 38.6 44.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 46.7 58.5 39.5 73.1 34.4 35.2 55.1 69.4 89.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 30.2 41.1 39.4 73.2 35.7 34.6 39.8 46.8 59.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 37.2 37.3 40.8 73.4 34.6 34.7 37.1 58.1 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 36.4 34.6 37.1 74.0 36.1 35.7 30.7 61.7 80.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 37.8 46.4 35.8 74.3 35.9 36.5 45.8 63.2 93.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 35.8 41.7 38.8 77.8 37.3 37.7 35.7 58.6 74.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 36.2 40.3 41.1 71.0 26.5 31.1 46.2 61.7 86.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 65.2 59.7 55.6 99.8 55.0 52.3 39.9 57.0 80.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 32.0 42.2 38.0 77.5 39.6 38.1 32.0 50.8 78.8 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 24.7 29.5 32.7 74.5 32.2 35.4 30.6 39.8 48.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 39.6 41.4 44.0 73.4 32.5 34.3 42.3 55.8 73.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 26.6 28.6 33.5 72.8 30.8 34.1 30.9 45.4 53.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 41.4 39.9 51.4 73.9 29.6 34.8 42.9 73.7 89.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 34.3 37.2 36.9 72.0 31.6 33.3 38.7 49.8 60.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 25.0 32.5 34.2 73.9 33.2 35.2 32.3 45.4 61.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 27.1 29.2 34.6 71.1 31.4 32.2 30.3 46.3 58.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 36.4 40.6 40.5 72.4 30.8 33.5 43.9 55.5 83.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 25.2 32.7 40.5 74.1 28.4 33.4 36.6 46.3 49.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 35.1 48.2 40.6 83.3 42.4 42.0 39.8 52.5 67.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 24.7 30.7 37.6 73.2 28.2 32.8 32.5 45.7 50.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 56.0 48.2 48.8 91.2 51.1 47.3 36.9 48.1 73.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 55.1 49.4 46.0 72.3 30.6 33.2 53.5 88.1 108.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 24.5 27.6 33.6 72.8 30.5 34.1 29.5 38.7 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------