***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.12.2014.-07.12.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.8 14.5 7.9 102.5 63.4 48.5 3.8 6.2 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.9 7.4 104.2 63.5 50.1 1.8 7.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.0 16.0 8.0 100.3 62.4 49.5 3.7 10.9 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.5 8.7 9.2 87.3 60.6 46.4 4.3 7.6 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.8 8.5 84.0 57.9 45.6 2.7 8.4 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.9 8.2 72.5 51.5 42.5 1.1 4.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.2 7.5 106.1 63.4 50.1 1.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.3 15.6 8.0 74.6 53.3 44.1 4.8 12.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.2 8.7 86.7 55.6 46.3 0.8 7.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.7 10.1 8.7 81.0 53.9 45.5 1.6 7.7 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.0 10.2 7.8 80.0 55.4 45.9 1.1 9.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.2 8.3 7.2 73.5 52.6 44.3 1.5 6.6 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.4 7.6 71.7 50.7 43.0 2.3 7.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.3 15.9 9.4 94.1 57.5 47.1 5.3 13.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.1 8.5 10.4 94.8 57.7 48.1 1.5 5.6 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.7 7.7 76.3 52.5 44.5 1.9 5.2 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.8 7.0 99.2 62.8 50.3 1.5 5.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 13.4 9.4 81.7 49.6 45.4 2.6 13.4 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 13.1 7.5 101.7 62.7 49.6 3.0 7.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.0 7.8 9.8 73.4 48.2 43.0 2.8 10.0 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.3 12.6 8.2 91.7 56.1 47.2 3.2 10.1 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.4 14.5 7.2 94.4 60.9 48.7 1.7 6.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.9 7.9 100.0 61.6 48.8 3.5 8.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.6 9.0 89.9 56.1 47.2 2.2 9.4 17.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.7 8.7 92.5 60.1 46.9 4.3 6.5 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.9 5.9 7.7 74.0 54.3 44.4 1.6 3.5 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.7 14.6 8.4 98.7 61.3 47.9 3.6 6.0 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.2 9.5 87.6 57.7 46.7 0.9 5.1 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.8 12.1 9.6 78.8 48.7 44.3 5.9 13.4 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.4 7.7 106.0 64.4 50.1 2.8 8.6 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------