***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.2 13.5 98.6 54.9 48.0 1.6 4.3 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.8 12.5 93.0 58.1 48.1 2.0 3.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.9 13.7 98.5 58.3 49.1 2.2 5.8 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.3 11.7 14.3 96.8 57.8 48.2 5.6 10.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.4 10.4 14.0 99.3 56.7 49.7 2.0 4.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 8.8 13.7 112.6 59.9 51.7 2.4 5.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.3 12.2 90.9 54.7 47.1 1.9 5.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.7 13.5 14.6 107.1 60.6 50.9 6.6 10.1 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.1 14.7 102.8 57.7 50.8 1.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.5 12.5 15.2 105.1 60.7 50.9 2.8 8.1 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.6 13.2 102.8 58.6 49.7 2.6 6.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.3 13.1 111.9 62.8 51.5 3.3 8.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.3 13.5 114.7 64.2 51.7 3.6 5.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.7 15.5 96.3 57.5 49.8 3.1 8.3 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.3 15.4 105.1 65.3 50.4 5.0 7.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.5 10.7 13.0 108.3 61.5 51.0 1.7 5.1 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.7 11.9 93.1 56.5 49.1 2.1 5.1 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 14.4 16.7 104.8 62.4 51.0 5.4 8.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.4 12.8 94.9 59.6 49.1 1.0 3.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 12.4 18.2 97.8 56.8 49.2 4.2 8.2 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.7 7.6 14.0 100.0 56.6 49.5 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.3 12.6 95.8 58.7 51.1 1.4 4.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.5 13.2 96.0 59.5 49.8 1.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.2 15.5 102.1 61.1 50.8 2.9 7.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.5 7.0 14.9 97.6 54.8 48.0 2.7 5.4 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.9 13.4 117.0 63.9 51.9 3.0 6.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.4 14.4 97.5 54.7 47.9 2.2 5.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.1 12.0 14.3 102.7 61.5 50.0 4.0 7.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.7 17.8 17.5 102.0 59.6 50.3 7.3 12.9 28.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.1 12.8 93.2 57.5 47.6 2.0 3.5 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------