***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.0 10.7 8.4 70.8 51.0 43.9 4.6 10.6 14.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.4 8.4 76.0 50.2 43.2 4.5 8.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.3 8.6 8.6 71.8 48.7 42.6 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.2 13.5 10.4 72.1 50.1 41.7 5.3 13.4 22.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.2 11.7 10.1 70.8 48.5 42.6 5.3 12.4 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.4 14.1 12.1 82.1 50.0 44.3 5.4 14.1 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.6 8.4 77.0 52.7 44.3 3.1 8.1 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.8 12.8 10.1 66.8 46.1 40.9 7.1 14.4 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.0 10.1 69.8 48.4 42.5 2.1 10.4 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.8 9.4 10.5 69.2 46.7 41.5 5.2 10.6 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.6 12.0 9.8 72.6 48.1 43.2 4.4 12.8 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.8 12.3 9.3 68.9 47.4 42.0 3.5 13.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 7.7 15.8 10.9 78.1 49.1 43.8 6.5 16.9 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.9 13.2 10.4 70.2 43.6 40.0 7.8 17.0 30.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.4 13.1 85.0 58.1 46.3 2.6 8.9 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.6 13.4 10.4 76.7 50.4 43.4 7.9 13.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.7 8.9 8.8 82.6 52.0 45.2 5.7 8.8 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.2 9.7 11.2 68.0 44.2 40.0 6.4 12.9 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.0 10.0 8.4 73.3 48.4 41.8 6.9 10.5 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.8 11.7 13.1 67.4 44.9 39.9 6.4 12.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.8 9.2 70.2 46.3 41.8 5.5 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.5 10.9 8.9 77.5 48.5 43.2 6.8 11.7 21.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.4 8.1 8.5 68.9 46.1 39.8 5.3 9.7 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 6.2 7.6 10.0 68.5 44.9 40.4 2.6 14.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.3 10.3 10.4 74.8 51.9 43.4 3.5 10.0 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 18.9 17.6 10.5 77.5 54.2 44.6 5.9 14.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.9 9.5 9.6 74.3 53.1 44.4 2.6 8.1 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.5 11.1 11.6 78.0 51.9 43.5 2.6 10.4 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.5 11.7 67.0 43.1 39.4 8.6 17.0 33.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.7 8.3 73.9 49.7 42.9 4.6 7.9 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------